Padres vs Yankees Prediction 5/6/25 MLB Picks

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 19-16 this season after they lost game one in this series on Monday night. New York scored two in the third inning and one in the sixth, but they fell apart in the eighth for the loss. The Yankees recorded six hits in the game, and they were led by Grisham, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. New York started Rodon, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Williams allowed one hit and three earned runs in just 0.2 innings in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Yankees lost two out of three against the Rays and two out of three against the Orioles. New York has lost four of their last five games, and they are currently first in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .204 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 190 runs with a .260 batting average and a .344 on-base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Trent Grisham has added nine home runs and 17 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clarke Schmidt, who is 0-1 with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 14.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Padres

• The underdogs have won each of the last three games between the Padres and Yankees.
• The Padres have lost seven of their last 10 games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in 18 of their last 22 games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 home games against National League opponents.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Padres at Yankee Stadium.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Padres' last nine games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Yankees' last eight games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last four games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Yankees' last four games as underdogs.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Trent Grisham has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Paul Goldschmidt has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Padres.
• Trent Grisham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances after playing the previous day.
• DJ LeMahieu has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five appearances.
• Jazz Chisholm has scored a run in seven of his last eight home appearances.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in four of his last five road appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Padres' last two games as favorites against the Yankees.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Manny Machado has scored a run in each of the Padres' last four games.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in 18 of his last 20 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Cronenworth has recorded a hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.

Padres vs Yankees Prediction 

New York comes into this contest really struggling over the last few series, but they are 11-8 at home so far this year. The Yankees haven’t been great at the plate in recent games, and they will face King, who has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last four starts. On the other side, the Padres have scored 4+ runs in four of their last five games, and they will face Schmidt, who has been shaky since coming off the IL. I know San Diego is hot right now and they have the better pitcher, but I am taking the Yankees at home at this great price.