Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Prediction 5/5/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Los Angeles Dodgers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Dodgers and Marlins

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Dodgers vs Marlins game

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Dodgers opened up the season with a long string of wins, taking series sweeps over the Chicago Cubs, Detroit Tigers, and Atlanta Braves before losing a set against the Phillies. Los Angeles fell in two of three to both the Washington Nationals and Cubs after that, then swept the Rockies. The Dodgers beat the Rangers in a series, lost two versus the Cubs, and then took out Pittsburgh in a set. Following a sweep over the Marlins, LA beat the Braves Friday, 2-1. In the Saturday game two, the Dodgers powered out a 10-3 win thanks to 12 team hits. Freddie Freeman (two runs; three hits; four RBI) and Shohei Ohtani (three runs; three hits) each had homers in that victory. 

On Sunday, LA took a tight loss, 4-3. Starter Dustin May finished with 5.2 innings and four earned runs. 

As a starter for Monday’s matchup, the Dodgers are going with Ben Casparius. This year, Casparius is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in 11 games (one start). He’s got 21.2 innings in the bag. Casparius is 5-0 with a 2.70 overall ERA in 14 career games (one start). 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Marlins’ side, they took out the Pittsburgh Pirates in their opening set before two series losses versus the New York Mets, surrounding a split with the Braves. Miami would beat the Nationals in a series, then got swept by the Diamondbacks, ahead of a series loss to Philly. The Marlins beat the Reds in two of three, then lost a series versus the Mariners before a sweep by the Dodgers. After another loss to the A’s on Friday, in game two, the Marlins scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth during a wild comeback win, 9-6. Kyle Stowers was responsible for six RBI on two homers, and starter Max Meyer went 5.0 innings with five earned on 10 hits and two walks. In Sunday’s game, Miami was out-hit 10-5 in a tough loss, 3-2. Starter Edward Cabrera lasted 5.2 innings with two earned runs on seven hits and a walk alongside four strikeouts. Dane Myers walked away with both RBI. 

Starting pitcher for the Marlins on Monday will be Sandy Alcantara. This year, Alcantara is 2-3 with an 8.31 ERA in six starts total. Alcantara has 26.0 innings in the bag so far. He’s 43-58 with a 3.46 ERA in 152 career games (144 starts).

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Dodgers have lost six of their last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The home team has won 11 of the last 14 games between the Dodgers and Marlins.
• The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as road favorites against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Dodgers following a home loss.

Why the Los Angeles Dodgers will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight games against NL West opponents.
• The Dodgers have won nine of their last 10 games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Dodgers have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 games against the Marlins.
• The Dodgers have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Marlins.
• The Dodgers have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against the Marlins.
• The Dodgers have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against the Marlins.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Dodgers' last 12 games as favorites against the Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Marlins' last 10 games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the last six night games between the Dodgers and Marlins.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Dodgers' last five night games at LoanDepot Park.

Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction 

I might take a wild stab on the Marlins here, but I’m probably staying away in reality. Miami needs a quality start from Alcantara, who has been sketchy lately. He’s lost his last three starts, but Alcantara does have a decent outing in there (6.0 innings; three earned versus the Reds). The other pair has been a disaster, with 4.2 combined innings and 13 earned runs on 11 hits and seven walks. If Alcantara can somehow turn it around, however, Miami may have a chance. 

The other piece of bad news is that the Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games—three of those coming versus the Dodgers in late April. Miami did get close in game one (7-6), so a win is certainly conceivable. I’m not touching it, though.