Twins vs Guardians Prediction 4/30/25 MLB Picks

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 16-13 this year, and they have split the first two games in this series by scores of 1-11 and 2-1. In their game two win, Cleveland scored once in the third inning, but needed a home run in the ninth to escape with the win. The Guardians recorded six hits in the game, and they were led by Manzardo and Naylor, who both had a home run in the win. Cleveland started Bibee, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings, while Clase picked up the win. 

Prior to this series, the Guardians lost two out of three against the Red Sox, but did win two out of three against the Yankees before that. Cleveland has lost three of their last four games, and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 4.48 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP and a .262 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 110 runs with a .236 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Manzardo has led Cleveland with eight home runs and 19 RBIs, while Steven Kwan has added four home runs and 15 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Luis Ortiz, who is 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 25.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Twins will beat the Guardians 

• The Guardians have lost each of their last six games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Twins have won four of their last five games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Twins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Twins' last six road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Guardians' last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 11 of the Guardians' last 12 games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Twins' last five games.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit at least one home run in nine of the Guardians' last 28 night games.
• Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances with the Guardians as underdogs against the Twins.
• Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in four of the Guardians' last five games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Guardians as home underdogs.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Guardians as home underdogs against AL opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Harrison Bader has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road favorite against the Guardians.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
• Ty France has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Twins' last four games against AL opponents.
• Ty France has scored at least one run in each of the Twins' last eight road games against AL opponents.
• Pablo Lopez has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 11 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ty France has recorded at least one Single in each of the Twins' last four night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ty France has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins' last eight road games against AL opponents.

Twins vs Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland was able to escape with the win in game two of this series on Tuesday night, but they have scored three runs or fewer in four straight games. The Guardians are 9-5 at home this year, while the Twins are 4-11 on the road. Minnesota had its winning streak snapped on Tuesday, but they are playing well right now and are trying to dig out of their early-season hole. Minnesota has a big advantage with Lopez on the mound, and their offense should have a big day against Ortiz. Take the Twins here.