Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/30/25 MLB Picks

The projected starting pitcher for the Cubs is Matthew Boyd, who is 2-2 in five starts this season, with a 2.54 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 28.1 innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (11-19, 6-8 Home) returned home from two road series, where they faced the Angels and Dodgers. The Pirates beat the Angels, lost to the Dodgers, and are now looking to avoid the fourth defeat in a row. Including a 9-0 loss to the Cubs in Game 1 of this series, the Pirates allowed 26 runs in the last three games. Andrew Heaney took the loss after allowing four runs on five hits with no strikeouts and three walks in 4.2 innings.

This year, the Pirates average 3.40 runs per game (25th in the MLB) on a .224/.303/.338 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 4.14 ERA (18th) and 1.24 WHIP (11th). Oneil Cruz leads the Pirates with a .250 batting average, eight home runs, and 16 RBI this season.

Carmen Mlodzinski will take the mound for the Pirates on Wednesday. The 26-year-old right-hander has a 1-3 record in five starts this year with a 6.95 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 22.0 innings.

Why the Cubs will beat the Pirates

• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games at PNC Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost eight of their last nine games at PNC Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home games.
• The Cubs have covered the run line each of their last five road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Cubs' last nine night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Pirates' last four night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last eight road games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Pirates' last seven home games against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (35).
• The Pirates rank T27th in the league for home runs this season (23).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for triples this season (9).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (178).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction

The Cubs won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including five of the last seven. Interestingly, the Cubs scored 21 and allowed no runs in the last two H2Hs, but I don't think they will keep the opponents off the scoreboard in this one as well. Still, I am backing the visitors to win here as I like the pitching matchup, which favors the Cubs. Matthew Boyd posted a 1.50 ERA in 6.0 innings last time he faced the Pirates, while Pittsburgh has a .220 BA in 268 at-bats against southpaws this season. Carmen Mlodzinski allowed 3+ runs in four of his five starts this year, and I am sure the Cubs will score 4+ runs off him in the opening five innings. I am going with Chicago.