Twins vs Guardians Prediction 4/28/25 MLB Picks

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-12 this year after they lost two out of three against the Red Sox by scores of 5-4, 3-7, and 3-13. In their game three loss, Cleveland allowed the first nine runs in the game, and they never really had a chance to compete in the loss. The Guardians recorded eight hits, and they committed four errors in the game, while they were led by Jones, who had all three RBIs in the loss. Cleveland started Allen, who allowed nine hits and seven earned runs over 4.1 innings in the loss, while four relievers also allowed at least one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Yankees and swept the Pirates in three games. Cleveland has lost three of their last four games, and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 107 runs with a .237 batting average and a .308 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Manzardo has led Cleveland with seven home runs and 18 RBIs, while Steven Kwan has added four home runs and 15 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Gavin Williams, who is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 26.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Twins 

• The Guardians have won each of their last eight games as home favorites.
• The Twins have lost seven of their last eight games at Progressive Field.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Monday night games.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Monday night games as road underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Twins' last eight games as underdogs against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Guardians' last three games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Twins' last seven night games against AL Central opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Guardians' last five games.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Carlos Santana has recorded an RBI in five of his last six appearances with the Guardians as home favorites against the Twins.
• Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in four of the Guardians' last five games as home favorites.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Guardians' last 10 games at Progressive Field.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last 10 games at Progressive Field.
• Lane Thomas has hit a home run in three of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against AL Central opponents.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with the Guardians as favorites.
• Steven Kwan ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.346) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Larnach has hit a home run in each of the Twins' last three night games.
• Ty France has scored at least one run in each of the Twins' last six road games against AL opponents.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one Single in each of his last four road appearances against AL opponents.
• Bailey Ober has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in night games.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against AL opponents.
• Willi Castro has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with the Twins as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against AL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank T7th in the league for strikeouts against this season (215).
• The Guardians rank 23rd in the league for hits this season (208).
• The Twins rank 6th in the league for doubles this season (51).
• The Twins are one of only six teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Twins vs Guardians Prediction 

Minnesota comes into this series with plenty of momentum after sweeping the Angels over the weekend, but they are just 3-10 on the road this season. Cleveland is 8-4 at home, but just allowed 20 runs to Boston in their last two games. The Guardians are starting Williams, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts. The Twins are going with Ober, who has allowed one earned run in three of his last four. Both pitchers have some ugly numbers on the season, but they have been pretty solid in recent starts. I think this game could go either way, so I will fade the Twins and their terrible road record.