Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction 4/24/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Baltimore Orioles

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Washington Nationals

Recent betting trends in games played between the Orioles and Nationals

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Orioles vs Nationals game

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

Baltimore posted a four-game split with the Toronto Blue Jays in their opening series this year, then fell in a set against the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles would lose their next two series versus the Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks, then split a pair against the Blue Jays. After a series win over the Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore lost in two of three versus the Reds over the weekend. On Tuesday in the opener versus the Nationals, the O’s were only able to notch one hit in a rough loss, 7-0. Cedric Mullins had the lone knock, adding a pair of walks as well. 

In the Wednesday matchup, Baltimore gave up three runs in the first inning along the way to a 4-3 loss. The O’s out-hit the Nats 10-6 but still fell. Starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano lasted 7.0 innings with three earned runs on five hits. 

As the starting pitcher for the Thursday finale, the Orioles will roll with Cade Povich. So far, over four starts, Povich is 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in 18.1 innings total. Povich is 3-11 with a 5.42 ERA in 20 career starts. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Over on the Nationals’ side, they lost their first two series versus the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays (sweep) before winning two of three versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. Washington would win another set versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, ahead of losses in two of three versus the Marlins and in three of four against the Pirates. Over the weekend, Washington won their first pair over the Rockies before a 3-1 Sunday loss. In the Tuesday opener versus the O’s, Washington cruised on 14 team hits. Starter Mitchell Parker was great with 8.0 innings, one hit, two walks, and four strikeouts on the card. 

On Wednesday, the Nationals got home runs from James Wood (solo) and Josh Bell (two RBI) in their tight win. Starting pitcher Trevor Williams put up 5.0 innings with one earned run on six hits and a walk. Williams struck out five along the way. 

For Thursday’s finale, the Nats will send out MacKenzie Gore in the starting role. Gore is 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA in five total starts this year, totaling 29.0 innings. Gore is 23-28 with a 4.15 ERA in 80 career games (77 starts). 

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Orioles have lost each of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have won seven of their last eight games at Nationals Park against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in each of their last three road games.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Nationals' last four games.
• The Nationals have lost 14 of their last 15 Thursday night games at Nationals Park.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against the Orioles following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals' last nine games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Orioles' last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last six road games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Nationals' last eight games at Nationals Park.

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction 

I’ll lean toward the Nats. You could probably call this one either way, though. Gore had a spotty start in a loss versus Miami on April 13, notching 6.0 innings with four earned on eight hits and three walks. In the other two of his most recent trio, however, Gore is a combined 2-0 with just four earned in 12.0 innings on nine hits and three walks. As for Povich, he’s coming off a rough loss to the Reds with seven earned runs in 3.1 innings. In his 10.2 prior frames over two starts, however, Povich gave up just three earned runs. 

Washington started out great in their Wednesday win, but fizzled a bit the rest of the way. The pitching was spotty here and there, but overall held things together. I’d like to see a better effort on Thursday, but it’s a coin flip.