Brewers vs Pirates Prediction 7/10/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Brewers vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 10th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 59-34 this season after they won four out of five against the Cardinals by scores of 4-3, 4-3, 10-2, 1-5, and 8-4. In game five, Milwaukee had their lead cut to 6-4 in the sixth inning, but they scored the last two runs to pull away with the win. The Brewers recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Bauers, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Henderson allowed three hits and three earned runs over 5.1 innings for the win, while Ashby picked up a hold. Prior to that series, Milwaukee won two out of three against the Diamondbacks and three out of four against the Reds. 

This season, Milwaukee has a 3.33 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a .217 opponent batting average, while they have scored 476 runs with a .255 batting average and a .337 on base percentage. Jake Bauers has led the Brewers with 17 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Brice Turang has added 13 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Brandon Sproat, who is 3-4 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 79.0 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 47-47 this season after they lost two out of three against the Braves by scores of 12-4, 0-3, and 5-10. In game three, Pittsburgh cut the deficit to 6-5 in the sixth inning, but couldn’t find anymore offense for the loss. The Pirates recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Mangum, who went 4-5 with one home run and three RBIs. Keller allowed four hits and three earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Santana allowed four earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Nationals and split four games with the Phillies. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 492 runs with a .262 batting average and a .340 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 21 home runs and 64 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 14 home runs and 57 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 9-3 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 108.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Brewers have lost five of their last six night games at PNC Park following a road win.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five night games against the Brewers at PNC Park following a home loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games following a win.

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last six home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Brewers’ last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of Braxton Ashcraft’s last six appearances as a starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in four of his five previous home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Ryan O’Hearn has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Pirates as favorites.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Sproat has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his four previous road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• William Contreras has hit a home run in two of the Brewers’ last three games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last eight games as underdogs.

Brewers vs Pirates Prediction 

Milwaukee comes into this matchup after winning five of their last six games and they lead the NL Central by seven games. The Brewers are 30-16 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 24-24 at home. Pittsburgh has dropped two in a row, but they have scored 5+ runs in four of their last five. The Pirates are starting Ashcraft, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Sproat has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I have more faith in Ashcraft than Sproat, so give me the Pirates here.

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML