Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction 4/23/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Reds and Marlins

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Reds vs Marlins game

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds kicked off the 2025 campaign on a slide. They would lose in series against the San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, and Milwaukee Brewers over the first trio of attempts. The Reds managed a set win in their rematch versus the Giants early this month, then Cincinnati swept the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds then lost two of three versus the Mariners. In the weekend set versus the Orioles, Cincinnati split the first two games before a ridiculous 24-2 victory in the Sunday finale. The Reds posted a whopping 25 hits in that blowout win. On Monday versus Miami, the Reds gave up three runs in the seventh inning on the way to a 6-3 loss. Starter Nick Lodolo lasted 5.2 innings with three earned runs along the way. 

In the Tuesday game two, Cincinnati had seven hits in a 3-2 loss. Starting pitcher Nick Martinez lasted 5.2 innings with two earned runs. 

In the starter slot for the Reds on Wednesday, it’ll be Brady Singer. This year, Singer is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. He’s got a 39-44 overall record in his MLB career with a 4.25 ERA in 131 games (128 starts) total. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Marlins’ side, they began their year with a four-game series win against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and then lost a series against the New York Mets. Miami then split a rain-shortened pair versus the Braves ahead of another series loss versus the Mets. Miami would prevail in their next set versus the Washington Nationals before a sweep by the Diamondbacks. Miami won Sunday over the Philadelphia Phillies 7-5 to prevent a weekend series sweep. In the Monday opener, the Marlins gave up three runs in the eighth inning but managed to hang on for the victory in the end. Starter Max Meyer went 6.0 clean frames with five hits and a whopping 14 Ks. 

On Tuesday, Miami scored twice in the seventh inning on the way to nine team hits in the victory. Edward Cabrera lasted 5.0 frames as a starter with three earned runs on five hits and two walks. 

It’ll be Sandy Alcantara in the starter slot for the Marlins on Wednesday. This year, Alcantara is 2-1 with a 7.27 ERA in four starts over 17.1 innings. Alcantara is 43-56 with a 3.39 ERA in 150 career games (142 starts). 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won eight of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Reds have lost eight of their last nine road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home favorites against the Reds following a home win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against National League opponents.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last four games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three day games.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Marlins' last eight day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Reds' last six road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last six games as home favorites.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 16 of the Reds' last 18 road games against National League opponents.

Reds vs Marlins Prediction 

I’ll stick with the Reds. Singer hasn’t been terrible overall this year. In his last three outings combined, he’s got eight earned runs in 14.1 innings on 16 hits and seven walks, though, so he’s had a few bumps here and there. Singer only went 4.1 innings in his last start, a no-decision versus Seattle on April 17. As for Alcantara, he’s had some issues over his last pair, giving up 10 earned runs in 7.2 combined innings on nine hits and six walks. Alcantara is 1-1 in those two. 

The Reds were pretty flat in the Tuesday loss, but there were a few decent offensive performances. The pitching wasn’t downright horrible (for the most part) either. I think Cincinnati fares better on Wednesday.