Guardians vs Orioles Prediction 4/16/25 MLB Picks

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 6-10 this season, and they have lost four of their last five games. In the game one loss on Tuesday night, the Orioles fell behind 6-0 in the sixth inning, but they did score the last three runs before falling short in the comeback attempt. Baltimore recorded eight hits in the game, and they were led by Mullins, who went 2-3 with one home run, one RBI, and one walk in the loss. Baltimore started Morton, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.0 innings in the loss, while Perez allowed one earned run and three hits over 1.1 innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles split two games with the Blue Jays and lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.66 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and a .282 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 65 runs with a .229 batting average and a .310 on-base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with four home runs and 17 RBIs, while Tyler O’Neill has added two home runs and eight RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 1-2 with an 8.16 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP over 14.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Orioles

• The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Guardians have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against teams that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have covered the run line each of their last seven road games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles' last eight night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Guardians' last six games as underdogs against the Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Guardians' last nine games as underdogs.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Orioles' last seven games.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Cedric Mullins has hit a home run in three of the Orioles' last four games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Gunnar Henderson has scored at least one run in each of the Orioles' last five home games against the Guardians.
• Dean Kremer has recorded five or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 15 home appearances against AL opponents.
• Gary Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents.
• Ramon Urias has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against AL opponents.
• Jorge Mateo has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Ramon Urias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Guardians' last six games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians' last six road games.
• Steven Kwan has scored at least one run in seven of the Guardians' last eight road games against AL opponents.
• Steven Kwan has hit a home run in each of the Guardians' last two road games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last 11 games as underdogs against AL opponents.

Guardians vs Orioles Prediction 

Baltimore comes into this matchup continuing to struggle, and they have lost eight of their last 11 games. The Orioles are just 2-4 at home this year, while the Guardians are 4-6 on the road. Cleveland has been rolling over the last week, and their offense has scored at least six runs in four of their last five games. The Guardians should find more offensive success here, as Kremer has allowed 13 earned runs over 14.1 innings this year. I don’t love Gavin Williams, but we have to fade Kremer and the Orioles here. Take Cleveland to win.