Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 4/14/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boston Red Sox

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tampa Bay Rays

Recent betting trends in games played between the Red Sox and Rays

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Red Sox vs Rays game

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Red Sox got off to a rough start this year with losses in three of four games versus the Texas Rangers. Boston would then take two of three versus the Baltimore Orioles and sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in three games, though. The Red Sox lost three straight games against the Jays before a one-run Thursday win, then fell 11-1 against the White Sox on Friday. In the Saturday game two, the Red Sox took another loss despite an early 2-0 lead that lasted into the sixth inning. Boston would eventually lose steam and fall 3-2. 

In the Sunday finale, Boston scored twice in the sixth inning on the way to a 3-1 win. Trevor Story led the way with three hits, three RBI, and a home run in the victory. 

As the starting pitcher for Monday’s outing, the Sox will send out Tanner Houck. So far, in three starts, Houck is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA across 16.1 total innings. In 107 career games (74 starts), Houck is 24-30 with a 3.58 ERA. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

Over on the Rays’ side, they beat the Colorado Rockies in two of three games during their opening set this year. Tampa Bay then took out the Pittsburgh Pirates in two of three before getting swept by the Texas Rangers. Tampa Bay won just one of three against the Angels last week before a 6-3 win over the Braves on Friday. In game two, the Rays had a 2-0 lead going into the seventh inning and a 3-1 lead in the eighth but eventually lost a tough one 5-4. Tampa Bay had 12 team hits but gave up 15 on the other side.

On Sunday, Tampa Bay scored twice in the first inning and four more times in the sixth on the way to an 8-3 victory. Yandy Diaz had two runs and a solo homer, while Junior Caminero had two hits, two runs, three RBI, and a homer of his own. Joe Boyle went 5.0 innings in the starting role with no earned, no hits, and two walks alongside seven Ks. 

In the starting pitcher slot Monday, the Rays are going with Shane Baz. In his two starts this year, Baz is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 13.0 frames total. Baz is 8-5 with a 3.19 career ERA in 25 total starts at the MLB level. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have won seven of their last eight games against the Red Sox following a home win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last four games as underdogs against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost seven of their last 10 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Rays following a road win.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Red Sox's last 10 night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays' last five home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 15 of the Red Sox's last 17 night games against American League opponents.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction 

I’ll lean toward Tampa Bay, but this should be a pretty fun pitching matchup if both guys are on point. Baz has just two earned in 13.0 total innings so far this year. He’s coming off a no-decision versus the Angels with two earned in 7.0 innings. As for Houck, he started out with seven earned in a 9.2-inning span over his first two starts. In his last outing versus the Blue Jays on April 9, however, Houck put up just one earned in 6.2 innings on five hits and two walks total. 

The Rays got a pretty well-rounded offensive effort in their Sunday win over the Braves, with everyone getting on base at least once, except for Danny Jansen (0-for-4). I like Tampa Bay to keep it going in the Monday opener.