Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction 4/8/25 MLB Picks

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 7-3 this year after they won game one by a score of 2-0 on Monday night. New York scored one run in the third inning and added an insurance run in the eighth in the shutout win. The Mets recorded nine hits, and they were led by Soto and Taylor, who both had one RBI in the game. New York started Senga, who allowed five hits over 5.0 innings of work, while Young, Butto, and Stanek pitched four scoreless innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to this series, the Mets swept the Blue Jays in three games and won two out of three against the Marlins. The New York pitching staff has a 1.72 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .204 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 35 runs with a .206 batting average and a .292 on-base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with three home runs and 11 RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added two home runs and five RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who is 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP over 9.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins 

• The Mets have won each of their last nine games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have lost five of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games.

Why the Marlins will beat the Mets 

• The Marlins have won five of their last six games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five night games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against the Marlins at Citi Field following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets' last five games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins' last six road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Mets' last six night games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Marlins' last five games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in three of the Mets' last five games as favorites against the Marlins.
• Juan Soto has recorded a Double in three of the Mets' last four games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Marlins.
• Starling Marte has scored a run in each of his last four appearances with the Mets as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Pete Alonso has recorded a Single in seven of the Mets' last eight games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Mets as favorites.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has scored at least one run in each of his last three road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in 11 of the Marlins' last 13 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jonah Bride has hit at least one home run in three of his last nine appearances with the Marlins as road underdogs.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 road appearances after playing the previous day.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a five-game winning streak, and they already have three wins over this Miami team this year. The Mets have had the best pitching staff in baseball through ten games, but Holmes does have a very elevated WHIP through two starts. Miami is playing .500 ball to start the season, but they have dropped three of their last four games. The Marlins have been shut out in two of those three losses, but their pitching staff has allowed just two runs in three of their last five. I think we are going to see another lower-scoring game here, and I like the under.