Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 4/2/25 MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 4-1 this season after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 6-1 and 7-0. Tampa Bay scored three runs in the first inning, and they added three more in the 3rd/4th, which put the game away for the win. The Rays recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Lowe, who went 3-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the game. Tampa Bay started Baz, who went 6.0 innings and allowed just seven hits in the win. 

Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against the Rockies by scores of 3-2, 1-2, and 6-4. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 1.60 ERA with a 0.84 WHIP and a .212 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 23 runs with a .296 batting average and a .371 on-base percentage this season. Brandon Lowe has led Tampa Bay with two home runs and five RBIs, while Mangum and Misner both have four RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 6.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Rays will beat the Pirates

• The Rays have won eight of their last nine games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Wednesday day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Pirates will beat the Rays 

• The Rays have lost each of their last three day games against National League opponents following a win.
• The favorites have won 10 of the last 11 games between the Pirates and Rays.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Wednesday home games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as road favorites against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays' last seven day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates' last four games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 12 of the Pirates' last 13 games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last five games as home underdogs.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of the Rays' last three games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Rays' last five games against NL Central opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in four of the Rays' last five games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in 13 of his last 14 appearances in day games.
• Josh Lowe has recorded a Single in each of his last four appearances.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit at least one home run in four of the Pirates' last 10 games against AL East opponents.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one Single in 14 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Pirates' last four games as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has scored at least one run in five of his six previous appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against AL opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this matchup looking to snap a four-game losing streak, and they will turn to Skenes, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Skenes pitched well in his first outing of the year, but the bullpen blew the game. Tampa Bay has won three games in a row, and they have scored 6+ runs in all three of those wins. The Rays will counter with Pepiot, who had a very good start in his first outing as well. I really like both pitchers in this matchup, and I think runs will be at a premium, so I like the under here.