Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 4/1/25 MLB Picks

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 3-1 this season after they won game one of this series by a score of 6-1 on Monday. Tampa Bay scored four runs in the fourth inning, and they controlled the game after that, but they did allow one run in the eighth to ruin the shutout. The Rays recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Mangum, who went 4-4 with two RBIs, and Morel, who went 1-4 with one RBI. The Rays started Rasmussen, who allowed just two hits over 5.0 innings of work, while Englert allowed two hits and one earned in the eighth. 

Prior to that victory, the Rays won two out of three against the Rockies by scores of 3-2, 1-2, and 6-4. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 2.00 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and a .198 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 16 runs with a .292 batting average and a .361 on-base percentage this year. Jose Caballero has led Tampa Bay with three RBIs on the season, while Brandon Lowe has added one home run and two RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who went 4-3 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 79.1 innings pitched last year. The Rays will face the Rangers following this series,

Why the Rays will beat the Pirates 

• The Pirates have lost 13 of their last 14 night games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Rays have won nine of their last 10 games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Rays' last 10 night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates' last six night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last six night games between the Pirates and Rays.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 15 of the Pirates' last 17 night games against American League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay was able to jump on Pittsburgh early in game one, and they rode Rasmussen to a nice victory and they have scored six runs in each of their last two games. The Rays are heating up with their bats, and their pitching staff has a top-five ERA in baseball. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 to start the season, and they are batting just .174 through five games. The Pirates have not announced who is starting on the mound in this game, but we know Shane Baz will be going for the Rays, who had a very good 2024 in limited action. This Pittsburgh offense is really struggling right now, so I am leaning towards Tampa Bay -1.5 here.