New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction 3/29/25 MLB Picks

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 1-1 this season after they lost to New York by a score of 3-1 on Friday. The Astros allowed the first three runs in the game, but they answered with one run in the fourth inning on a sac-fly before getting shut out the rest of the way. The Astros only recorded three hits in the game and committed an error. Altuve led Houston in this game, as he was 2-3 with one run scored. Hunter Brown started for Houston, and he allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings. Houston did win the first game in this series by a score of 3-1 on Thursday, so the offense hasn’t been great through two games. The Astros will face the Giants following this series.

Last season, the Houston pitching staff had a 3.74 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 740 runs with a .262 batting average and a .322 on-base percentage. Houston was top 11 in runs scored per game, and they were sixth in team ERA, so it was a very solid season. The Astros were led by Yordan Alvarez, who hit .308 with 35 home runs and 86 RBIs last year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Spencer Arrighetti, who went 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 145.0 innings pitched last year. 

Why the Astros will beat the Mets 

• The Mets have lost each of their last nine Saturday games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Astros have won 12 of their last 15 games against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 road games against AL West opponents following a road win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against NL East opponents.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in 12 of their last 16 games against the Mets at Daikin Park.

Why the Mets will beat the Astros 

• The Astros have lost four of their last five games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have won seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games at Daikin Park.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last four road games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros' last five games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mets' last seven night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last 10 games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last five night games at Daikin Park.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Astros' last nine games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last nine Saturday night games as favorites.
• Yordan Alvarez has hit at least one home run in three of his six previous appearances with the Astros as favorites against the Mets.
• Victor Caratini has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances in night games.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded a Single in nine of his last 10 appearances with the Astros as home favorites against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jose Siri has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL West opponents.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six Saturday night appearances.
• Juan Soto has recorded an RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances after playing the previous day.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction 

These two teams have split the first two games in this series by a score of 3-1 in each game, but each side will be looking for more offense here. I really don’t love either starting pitcher in this matchup, and I think we could see both offenses find success. Houston is going with Arrighetti, who was up and down last season but allowed a lot of baserunners. New York is starting Canning, who was one of the worst starters in the MLB and had an ERA of 5.19. Take the over here.