Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 3/27/25 MLB Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks went 89-73 last year, and they finished third in the NL West, which was nine games behind the Dodgers and four games behind the Padres. Arizona had a very successful 2024 season, but they had the misfortune of playing in one of the best divisions in baseball. The Diamondbacks were in the middle of the NL Wild Card race for the majority of the season, but they came up just short and lost the tiebreaker. Arizona did end the season struggling over the last week, as they lost five of their last seven games. In Spring Training, the Diamondbacks finished 17-14, which was tied for fifth in the Cactus League, and they went 4-2-2 in their last eight games. 

Last season, the Arizona pitching staff had a 4.62 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .262 opponent batting average. The Arizona offense scored 886 runs with a .263 batting average and a .337 on-base percentage. The Diamondbacks were the highest-scoring team in the MLB last season, but their pitching staff let them down for most of the year. Ketel Marte led Arizona with a .292 batting average, 36 home runs, and 95 RBIs last season. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Zac Gallen, who went 14-6 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 148.0 innings pitched in 2024. 

Why the Diamondbacks will beat the Cubs 

• The Cubs have lost each of their last five night games against NL West opponents.
• The favorites have won each of the Cubs' last six games.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last four games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Cubs will beat the Diamondbacks 

• The underdogs have won seven of the last eight games between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
• The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last nine games as home favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 10 games between the Cubs and Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 home games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Cubs and Diamondbacks have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Cubs' last seven road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cubs' last five games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last four night games between the Cubs and Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ketel Marte has hit a home run in three of the Diamondbacks' last four home games against the Cubs.
• Randal Grichuk has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances at Chase Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Zac Gallen has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Eugenio Suarez has recorded a Single in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Corbin Carroll has scored at least one run in 16 of his last 18 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Zac Gallen has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Diamondbacks as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances at Chase Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Garrett Hampson has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents at Chase Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of his last eight appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL West opponents.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Justin Steele has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last five road appearances against NL West opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances with the Cubs as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cubs' last six games against NL West opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Michael Busch ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (1) this season.

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 

Chicago does have the benefit of playing two regular-season games already, but they went 0-2 and looked horrible at the plate in those games. The Cubs will turn to Justin Steele and hope he can bounce back from his bad first outing, but he will face a very dangerous lineup here. We know the Diamondbacks can score as well as any team in the MLB, but their pitching staff was a disaster last season. I know Gallen has had plenty of great starts, but I don’t really trust him or the bullpen at all. Take the over here.