Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction MLB Picks 9/27/24

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 80-79 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Boston is coming off of a series win against Toronto, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Twins, lost two out of three against the Rays, and lost three out of four against the Yankees. Boston is 6-7 in their last 13 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 745 runs with a .253 batting average and a .320 on-base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .286 with 21 home runs and 75 RBIs for the Red Sox this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 7-11 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 132.0 innings pitched this year. Bradley has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two straight starts but has struggled over the last month or so. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Nick Pivetta, who is 6-11 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 139.0 innings pitched this season. Pivetta has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Rays

• The home team has won 10 of the Rays' last 11 games.
• The Rays have lost each of their last five road games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against the Rays following a road loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven Friday games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Rays' last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Red Sox's last five games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last five night games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has scored a run in each of the Red Sox's last five games as home favorites against the Rays.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox's last two home games against the Rays.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites.
• Trevor Story has recorded a Single in seven of his last eight appearances at Fenway Park.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous appearances against the Rays at Fenway Park.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one total base in each of his last six home appearances against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Rays' last eight games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with the Rays as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays' last six road games against the Red Sox.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rays' last six games against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
• Josh Lowe has scored at least one run in five of the Rays' last six road games against the Red Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Tampa Bay comes into this series after getting swept by Detroit in their last series and their offense continues to be a big issue. The Rays continue to get very good pitching, but scoring five runs in a three-game series like they did against Detroit isn’t going to get the job done. The Rays are 36-42 on the road, while the Red Sox are 37-41 at home this year. I don’t love how Taj Bradley has pitched over the last few weeks and I think this Boston offense will get to him. Take the Red Sox at home.