Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction MLB Picks 9/24/24

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 90-67 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Cleveland is coming off of a series loss against St. Louis, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Guardians won three out of four against the Twins, split four games with the Rays, and swept the White Sox. Cleveland is 6-3 in their last nine games and they have clinched the AL Central. 

The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.64 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Guardians' offense has scored 692 runs with a .238 batting average and a .308 on-base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .274 with 37 home runs and 112 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Jakob Junis, who is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over 62.0 innings pitched this year. Junis has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who is 11-8 with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 166.2 innings pitched this season. Bibee has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Reds will beat the Guardians

• The Reds have won each of their last four games as road underdogs following a home loss.
• The Guardians have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against the Reds following a loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 13 Tuesday night games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Reds' last 10 night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the last seven games between the Reds and Guardians have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last three games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three night games at Progressive Field.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in each of the Guardians' last two games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Josh Naylor has recorded a Double in each of the Guardians' last three night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians' last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in five of the Guardians' last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last 10 games as favorites.
• Myles Straw has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Myles Straw has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• TJ Friedl has hit a home run in each of the Reds' last two night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Spencer Steer has recorded a Double in three of the Reds' last four games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• Ty France has recorded an RBI in each of the Reds' last six games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Ty France has scored at least one run in seven of the Reds' last eight games against AL opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one Single in each of the Reds' last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Reds as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• Amed Rosario has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this game after already clinching the AL Central, but they are still within striking distance of the Yankees for the first seed in the AL. The Guardians are 48-28 at home this year, while the Reds are 37-39 on the road. Cincinnati just fired their manager, which could potentially fire them up for the last six games, but they really have nothing to play for. Both of these starting pitchers have been very solid recently and I think the Reds do have some value. I like what I have seen from Junis, so give me the Reds and the plus money.