Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 9/6/24

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 75-65 this season and they have lost three games in a row. Houston is coming off of a series loss against Cincinnati, where they dropped all three games and were outscored 18-8. Prior to that series, the Astros swept the Royals, lost two out of three against the Phillies, and split four games with the Orioles. Houston is 6-7 in their last 13 games and they are first in the AL West. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 636 runs with a .260 batting average and a .320 on-base percentage. Jose Altuve is batting .294 with 18 home runs and 57 RBI’s for the Astros this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Brandon Pfaadt, who is 9-7 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 160.1 innings pitched this year. Pfaadt has allowed at least three earned runs in four straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 13-6 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 150.1 innings pitched this season. Valdez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Astros will beat the Diamondbacks

• The Astros have won 11 of their last 12 home games following a road loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last five night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Diamondbacks will beat the Astros

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last six games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Astros have lost each of their last three games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last nine road games against the Astros following a road loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Diamondbacks' last 12 night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Astros' last seven night games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last five games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last four games at Minute Maid Park.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances against NL West opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one Single in each of the Astros' last eight Friday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Framber Valdez has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances at Minute Maid Park.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last eight games against NL opponents at Minute Maid Park.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against NL West opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last nine home games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Eugenio Suarez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Diamondbacks' last seven games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Corbin Carroll has hit at least one home run in each of the Diamondbacks' last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Geraldo Perdomo has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last nine night games.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in nine of his last 10 road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Geraldo Perdomo has scored a run in each of his last eight appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction 

Houston comes into this game leading the AL West standings, but they have played just ok over the last two weeks. The Astros are 39-29 at home, while the Diamondbacks are 40-31 on the road. Arizona is the highest-scoring team in the MLB this year, but their pitching staff has not been very good. The Diamondbacks are starting Brandon Pfaadt, who has been roughed up in his last few outings. The Astros are going with Framber Valdez, who continues to be one of the better pitchers in the AL. I don’t have much faith in Pfaadt or the Diamondbacks bullpen, but the Diamondbacks can score runs in bunches, so I like the over in this game.