Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction MLB Picks 9/3/24

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays are 67-72 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Toronto is coming off of a series loss against Minnesota, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Blue Jays split four games with the Red Sox, swept the Angels, and lost two out of three against the Reds. Toronto is 7-4 in their last 11 games and they are last in the AL East. 

The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.34 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays' offense has scored 587 runs with a .241 batting average and a .313 on-base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .324 with 27 home runs and 89 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Tyler Phillips, who is 4-1 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 36.0 innings pitched this year. Phillips has allowed 5, 4, and 8 earned runs in his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Chris Bassitt, who is 9-13 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 151.2 innings pitched this season. Bassitt has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Blue Jays will beat the Phillies

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents.

Why the Phillies will beat the Blue Jays

• The Phillies have won each of their last six night games after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games after going to extra innings.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies' last eight night games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Blue Jays' last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last four games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three games between the Phillies and Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Daulton Varsho has recorded a Single in each of his last four home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances at Rogers Centre.
• Davis Schneider has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ernie Clement has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Blue Jays against NL opponents.
• George Springer has scored a run in each of the Blue Jays' last four games as favorites against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Blue Jays.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs against AL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies' last five road games against AL opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Blue Jays.
• J.T. Realmuto has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in seven of the Phillies' last eight night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into this series leading the NL East and they have played very well over their last nine games. The Phillies are 34-31 on the road, while the Blue Jays are 34-33 at home. Philadelphia is clearly the better team in this matchup, but they are starting Tyler Phillips, who has been awful in his last three starts. Toronto is going with Chris Bassitt, who has been up and down this year but does have an elevated WHIP. I think we are going to see plenty of offense in this game, so I am taking the over here.