Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 8/21/24

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 68-57 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Houston won game one in this series by a score of 5-4 on Monday, but they lost game two on Tuesday. Prior to this series, the Astros won two out of three against the White Sox, lost all three against the Rays, and swept the Red Sox. Houston is 11-2 in their last 13 games and they are first in the AL West. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 575 runs with a .261 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .308 with 25 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Astros this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Cooper Criswell, who is 5-4 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 75.0 innings pitched this year. Criswell has allowed eight earned runs in his last two relief outings (4.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Justin Verlander, who is 3-2 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 57.0 innings pitched this season. Verlander has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts, but has been out since June 9th with an injury. 

Why the Astros will beat the Red Sox

• The Astros have won each of their last eight Wednesday games.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five day games following a win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against American League opponents.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Astros

• The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Astros following a road win.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games at Minute Maid Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last three Wednesday games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox's last six games as underdogs against the Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the last six games between the Red Sox and Astros at Minute Maid Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last five road games against AL West opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three day games between the Red Sox and Astros at Minute Maid Park.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jeremy Pena has recorded a Double in three of the Astros' last four games as favorites against the Red Sox.
• Alex Bregman has recorded two or more hits in each of his last five appearances against the Red Sox.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded an RBI in each of the Astros' last four home games against AL opponents.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances against the Red Sox at Minute Maid Park.
• Justin Verlander has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances with the Astros against AL opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances in day games.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances against the Astros.
• Wilyer Abreu has scored a run in each of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
• Rafael Devers has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Single in 10 of the Red Sox's last 11 road games against AL West opponents.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL West opponents.

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction 

Houston comes into this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now and they are pulling away from Seattle in the AL West standings. The Astros are 35-28 at home this season, while the Red Sox are 37-27 on the road. Boston has been one of the best road teams this year, but their pitching staff has really struggled over the last five weeks. Boston is going with Criswell, who has struggled in recent outings. Houston is starting Verlander, who is coming off of the IL and hasn’t pitched in the MLB since early June. I think Verlander could show some rust here and Boston has been an over machine, so my Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros prediction is for this game to go over the total.