Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 8/17/24

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 63-59 this season and they have won two of their last three games. New York won the first game in this series by a score of 7-3 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Athletics, lost all three against the Mariners, and won two out of three against the Rockies. New York is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 587 runs with a .250 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Francisco Lindor is batting .263 with 23 home runs and 70 RBI’s for the Mets this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Max Meyer, who is 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 36.1 innings pitched this year. Meyer has allowed four earned runs or more in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Severino, who is 7-6 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 133.2 innings pitched this season. Severino has allowed at least four earned runs in three straight starts. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Mets have won each of their last six games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have covered the run line each of their last four games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets' last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Marlins' last seven day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five games as underdogs.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last four day games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Double in five of the Mets' last six games at Citi Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets' last four games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Luis Severino has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Mets as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets' last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets' last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Mets' last six day games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last 11 games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in three of the Mets' last four games at Citi Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in nine of the Marlins' last 10 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Burger has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Marlins' last eight games against NL opponents.
• Jake Burger has scored at least one run in each of the Marlins' last six games as underdogs.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one Single in each of the Marlins' last six Saturday games as underdogs.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins' last eight games against the Mets.
• Jake Burger has hit a home run in five of the Marlins' last six games against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Mets rank T26th in the league for triples this season (12).
• The New York Mets rank T5th in the league for strikeouts this season (1088).
• The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.293).
• The Miami Marlins rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (165).

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction

New York comes into this matchup trying to chase down the Braves in the NL East, but they have struggled over the last two weeks. The Mets are 32-31 at home, while the Marlins are just 21-38 on the road this year. Miami has also struggled over the last couple of weeks, but that has been the norm for them this season. New York is starting Luis Severino, who has not pitched well in his last three outings. Miami is turning to Max Meyer, who has also been roughed up recently. This pitching matchup could result in a lot of runs being scored, but I don’t trust Miami on the road at all. My Miami Marlins vs New York Mets prediction is for the Mets to win by at least two runs.