Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction MLB Picks 7/30/24

Astros are in a Battle for the AL West 

The Houston Astros are 55-51 this year and they have lost two games in a row. Houston dropped the first game in this series on Monday, as they allowed three runs in the ninth. Prior to this series, the Astros won two out of three against the Dodgers, lost two out of three against the Athletics, and won two out of three against the Mariners. Houston is 3-5 in their last eight games and they are tied for first in the AL West with Seattle. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 495 runs with a .262 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .299 with 20 home runs and 55 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston has allowed at least five runs in three straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Bailey Falter, who is 4-7 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 90.1 innings pitched this season. Falter is coming off of the IL, but has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last six outings. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Hunter Brown, who is 9-6 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 110.1 innings pitched this year. Brown has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

Why the Astros will beat the Pirates

• The Astros have won each of their last six Tuesday games at Minute Maid Park.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five road games against AL West opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 15 games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in four of their last five night games following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the last six games between the Pirates and Astros have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates' last five road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last five games against AL West opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last four home games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Single in 14 of his last 15 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last 10 appearances against NL opponents at Minute Maid Park.
• Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in each of his last three home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Jake Meyers has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL opponents.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six road appearances.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Joey Bart has scored a run in each of his last five road appearances.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros Prediction 

Pittsburgh comes into this game with plenty of momentum after beating Houston in game one and winning 10 of their last 14 games, but they will have Bailey Falter on the mound, who I don’t necessarily trust. The Pirates are 28-26 on the road this year, while the Astros are 30-23 at home. Houston is battling with Seattle in the AL West, which makes every game very important. The Astros are turning to Hunter Brown, who has been mostly good in recent starts. I do like how Pittsburgh is playing, but I can’t trust Falter coming off of the IL against this Houston lineup. My Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros prediction is for the Astros to win.