Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction MLB Picks 7/28/24

Rays are Trying to Snap Trend

The Tampa Bay Rays are 53-52 this year and they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. Tampa Bay lost game one in this series, but they did win game two by a score of 4-0. If the recent trend continues here, the Rays are due for a loss. Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against the Blue Jays, split four games with the Yankees, and won two out of three against the Guardians. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the AL East. 

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 415 runs with a .234 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .249 with 16 home runs and 55 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay has scored at least four runs in five of their last eight games.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Hunter Greene, who is 7-4 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 117.1 innings pitched this year. Greene has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shawn Armstrong, who is 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP over 44.2 innings pitched this year. Armstrong has allowed one earned run in his last five innings and should only be expected to pitch one inning here. 

Why the Reds will beat the Rays

• The Reds have won each of their last six road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have lost five of their last six games at Tropicana Field following a win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine day games at Tropicana Field following a home win.
• The Reds have covered the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays' last six day games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Reds' last four games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rays' last four day games at Tropicana Field.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last three games as favorites against American League opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays' last four games against the Reds.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one total base in each of the Rays' last 16 games as home underdogs.
• Josh Lowe has scored at least one run in four of his last five appearances against the Reds.
• Josh Lowe has recorded a Single in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as underdogs.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded an RBI in five of the Rays' last six games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays' last 16 games as home underdogs.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds' last five day games.
• Hunter Greene has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in day games.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances with the Reds as favorites.
• Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances with his team as a road favorite against AL opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Reds' last four games as favorites.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds' last seven games as road favorites.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded a Single in each of the Reds' last four games as favorites against AL opponents.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Cincinnati comes into this matchup looking for their second consecutive series win, but they will be looking to bounce back from the shutout loss on Saturday. Tampa Bay is 28-28 at home this year, while Cincinnati is 25-26 on the road. The Rays have played decent baseball recently, but they are going against Hunter Greene, who has been lights out in his last four outings. I don’t love Tampa Bay’s pitching situation with Armstrong and then most likely Alexander, so my Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction is for the Reds to get the win.