Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 7/28/24

Mets Trying to Stay Hot 

The New York Mets are 55-49 this year and they have won five of their last six games. New York won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 8-4, but they were shutout on Saturday. Prior to this series, the Mets swept the Yankees in two games, split four games with the Marlins, and won two out of three against the Rockies. New York is 6-2 in their last eight games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 504 runs with a .248 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Francisco Lindor is batting .254 with 22 home runs and 62 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has allowed three runs or fewer in three of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Reynaldo Lopez, who is 7-4 with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 101.2 innings pitched this year. Lopez has allowed seven earned runs and 11 hits in his last two outings (12.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 5-0 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 48.2 innings pitched this season. Peterson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. 

Why the Mets will beat the Braves

• The Braves have lost seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have won seven of their last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against National League opponents following a loss.

Why the Braves will beat the Mets

• The underdogs have won four of the Mets' last five games.
• The Mets have lost six of their last seven day games at Citi Field following a home loss.
• The Braves have covered the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the last six games between the Braves and Mets have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Braves' last five games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last seven games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last six games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Double in each of the Mets' last four games as home favorites.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Mets' last eight games at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Tyrone Taylor has scored a run in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Mets as home favorites against the Braves.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Mets' last six games.
• Harrison Bader has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Starling Marte has recorded at least one Single in 15 of his last 18 appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Marcell Ozuna has hit at least one home run in five of the Braves' last six games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Braves' last seven games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Orlando Arcia has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves' last seven games against NL opponents.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Braves' last 10 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 10 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Sean Murphy has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances against the Mets.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction 

Atlanta was able to pick up a huge win in game three of this series on Saturday and they are barely hanging onto third place in the division. The Braves are currently leading the Mets by a half game in the NL East, which makes this game very important for each side. New York is 28-27 at home, while Atlanta is 25-27 on the road. Atlanta is starting Reynaldo Lopez, who has one of the lowest ERA’s in all of baseball so far this season. New York is going with David Peterson, who does have an elevated WHIP, but has had recent success. This is a pretty solid pitching matchup and I think we could see a lower scoring game, so my Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets prediction is for this game to go under the total.