San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction MLB Picks 7/24/24

Nationals Look For Better Offensive Effort 

The Washington Nationals are 47-54 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Washington dropped the first game in this series on Tuesday and they failed to score a run in the game. Prior to this series, the Nationals swept the Reds in three games, won two out of three against the Brewers, and lost all three against the Mets. Washington is 5-2 in their last seven games and they are fourth in the NL East. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 4.13 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 420 runs with a .239 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .264 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has scored at least five runs in five of their last seven games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Matt Waldron, who is 5-9 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 112.2 innings pitched this year. Waldron has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Mitchell Parker, who is 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 92.1 innings pitched this year. Parker has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts. 

Why the Nationals will beat the Padres

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Nationals have won four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last four night games against the Padres at Nationals Park following a home loss.

Why the Padres will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost eight of their last nine night games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won seven of their last eight games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 road games following a win.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Padres' last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals' last four games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last five Wednesday games at Nationals Park.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in seven of his last 16 appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• Lane Thomas has recorded a Double in three of the Nationals' last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Nationals' last eight games against NL West opponents.
• Jesse Winker has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances with the Nationals as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Nationals' last nine games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals' last 18 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Harold Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last nine appearances against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jurickson Profar has hit a home run in three of the Padres' last four games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances at Nationals Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in each of his six previous appearances with the Padres as road favorites against the Nationals.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 Wednesday appearances.
• Luis Arraez has scored at least one run in each of his seven previous road appearances against the Nationals.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL East opponents.

San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Prediction 

San Diego was able to pick up the shutout win in game one of this series on Tuesday and they continue to pursue the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres are 27-22 on the road, while the Nationals are 23-25 at home. Washington has actually been pretty good offensively over the last week, but they were shutout on Tuesday. I don’t love this pitching matchup, as Waldron and Parker have had issues recently, so my San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals prediction is for this game to go over the total.