Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction MLB Picks 7/21/24

Pirates are Going for Seven Straight 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 50-48 this year and they have won six games in a row. Pittsburgh has won the first two games in this series by scores of 8-7 and 4-1. Prior to this series, the Pirates swept the White Sox in three games, won two out of three against the Brewers, and split four games with the Mets. Pittsburgh is 8-1 in their last nine games and they are third in the NL Central.

The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 414 runs with a .233 batting average and a .301 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .290 with 18 home runs and 61 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh has allowed two runs or fewer in six of their last nine games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Tyler Phillips, who is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 10.0 innings pitched this season. Phillips has allowed five earned runs and nine hits in two starts so far this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Marco Gonzales, who is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 22.0 innings pitched this year. Gonzales has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts, but he has only pitched once since April 13th due to injury. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost each of their last four day games following a home win.
• The Phillies have won six of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four day games at PNC Park following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Thirteen of the Pirates' last 15 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies' last five day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last four day games at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in two of the Pirates' last three games against the Phillies.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Pirates' last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Oneil Cruz has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents at PNC Park.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances at PNC Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Marco Gonzales has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances.
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Yasmani Grandal has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in four of the Phillies' last five road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies' last five games against NL opponents.
• Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight road appearances.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded a Single in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Trea Turner has recorded two or more total bases in five of his six previous appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryce Harper ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for batting average this season (.233).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.373).
• The Philadelphia Phillies rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (863).
• The Philadelphia Phillies rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.258).

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into this game trying to avoid being swept in this series, but Pittsburgh is red hot right now and they have plenty of momentum. The Pirates are 24-24 at home this year, while the Phillies are 25-20 on the road. Pittsburgh has moved up to third in the NL Central standings and they are just six games behind Milwaukee. Philadelphia still has a comfortable lead in the NL East, but they have not played well recently. I know the Pirates are red hot and the Phillies are slumping, but Philadelphia is still the way better team and I think their pitching staff will return to form here. My Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction is for the Phillies to win.