Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction MLB Picks 7/4/24

Minnesota Twins (48-38) vs Detroit Tigers (39-47)

Game Info: Thursday, July 4, 2024 at 2:10 pm (Target Field)

Bailey Ober (7-4) (4.30) vs Kenta Maeda (2-4) (5.76)

Betting Odds: Minnesota Twins -190 / Detroit Tigers +160 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 4th at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

  • The Tigers recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Twins recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Detroit
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Minnesota
  • Recent betting trends in games played between Detroit and Minnesota
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Detroit and Minnesota

Tigers Trying to Find Consistent Offense 

The Detroit Tigers are 39-47 this season and they have won two of their last three games. Detroit lost the first game in this series, but they were able to bounce back with a win in game two on Wednesday by a score of 9-2. Prior to this series, the Tigers lost three out of four against the Angels, lost two out of three against the Phillies, and won two out of three against the White Sox. Detroit is just 2-5 in their last seven games and they are fourth in the AL Central. 

The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 353 runs with a .228 batting average and a .292 on base percentage. Riley Greene is batting .260 with 16 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Tigers this season. Detroit has scored at least five runs in three of their last four games. 

Twins are Second in the Central 

The Minnesota Twins are 48-38 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Minnesota won game one in this series by a score of 5-3 on Tuesday, but they allowed nine runs in the loss on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Twins won two out of three against the Mariners, won two out of three against the Diamondbacks, and won two out of three against the Athletics. Minnesota is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they are second in the AL Central. 

The Minnesota pitching staff has a 4.13 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 411 runs with a .248 batting average and a .318 on base percentage. Carlos Correa is batting .310 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI’s for the Twins this season. Minnesota has scored at least five runs in five of their last seven games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Kenta Maeda, who is 2-4 with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 59.1 innings pitched this year. Maeda has allowed 10 earned runs over his last 19.0 innings of work. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Bailey Ober, who is 7-4 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 88.0 innings pitched this season. Ober has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. 

Why the Twins will beat the Tigers

  • The Tigers have lost 14 of their last 16 games at Target Field following a win.
  • The Twins have won seven of their last eight games against the Tigers following a home loss.
  • The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a win.
  • The Twins have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Tigers' last six games as underdogs against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Six of the Twins' last seven day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last four games at Target Field.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Tigers' last three road games against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

  • Byron Buxton has hit a home run in two of the Twins' last three day games.
  • Byron Buxton has recorded a Double in six of his last seven appearances against AL opponents.
  • Byron Buxton has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Twins' last three day games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Carlos Santana has recorded two or more total bases in seven of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Byron Buxton has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances.
  • Bailey Ober has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
  • Jose Miranda has recorded at least one Single in each of the Twins' last six games as favorites.
  • Jose Miranda has recorded at least one hit in each of the Twins' last seven home games against AL Central opponents.
  • Bailey Ober has recorded a win in eight of his last nine appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

  • Matt Vierling has recorded two or more total bases in each of his five previous appearances at Target Field against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Kenta Maeda has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
  • Kerry Carpenter has scored at least one run in four of his five previous appearances at Target Field against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six road appearances against the Twins.
  • Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Twins.
  • Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Tigers as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.
  • Spencer Torkelson has hit at least one home run in each of his last three appearances at Target Field against AL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances against the Twins.

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 

Detroit has been one of the most inconsistent offensive teams in the MLB this season, but they did score nine runs on Wednesday and they have scored at least five runs in three of their last four games. The Tigers are 20-25 on the road, while the Twins are 24-17 at home. Minnesota is playing some very solid baseball right now and they are trying to catch Cleveland in the AL Central. The Twins do have the pitching advantage in this matchup, as Detroit is going with Maeda, who has been very bad so far this season. Maeda is allowing way too many base runners and I expect this hot Minnesota lineup to have a big day. My Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins prediction is for the Twins to win by at least two runs. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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