Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction 9/14/2025 Today’s EPL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction for this English Premier League Week 4 matchup on Sunday, September 14th, at the Turf Moo Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this English Premier League matchup.

Burnley Preview

Burnley has 3 points this season, with a 1-2-0 record, and are in 15th place in the Premier League standings. Burnley is coming off a 2-3 road loss against Manchester United, where they had 38% possession of the ball and 6 total shots, and 4 shots on goal. They had 71% completed passes, and fewer expected goals, with 1.20 compared to Manchester United’s 3.63.

They have a 1-0 home record and a 0-2 road record this season, and they average 1.33 goals per game, while allowing 2.00 goals per game. Jaidon Anthony is Burnley’s top scorer with 2 goals, followed by Josh Cullen (2 goals), and Lyle Foster (1 goal).

Liverpool Preview

Liverpool has 9 points this season, with a 3-0-0 record, and are in 1st place in the Premier League standings. Liverpool is coming off a 1-0 home win against Arsenal, where they had 53% possession of the ball and 9 total shots, with 3 on goal. They completed 85% of their passes and recorded slightly higher expected goals, posting 0.53 compared to Arsenal’s 0.49.

They have a 2-0 home record and a 1-0 road record this season, and they average 2.67 goals per game, while allowing 1.33 goals per game. Hugo Ekitike is the top scorer in the Liverpool squad with 2 goals, followed by Szoboszlai, Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Chiesa, Ngumoha, and Gravenberch with 1 goal each.

Why Burnley will win

·        Burnley has won nine of its last 10 league home matches.

·        Burnley has won each of its last five league home matches.

·        The home team has won each of Burnley’s last four league matches.

Why Liverpool will win

·        Liverpool has won each of its last 11 EPL matches against promoted teams.

·        Liverpool has won each of its last six EPL away matches against Burnley.

·        Liverpool has won each of its last five EPL matches against Burnley.

·        Liverpool has won each of its last six EPL matches against Burnley at Turf Moor.

·        The favorite has won each of Burnley’s last eight league matches.

·        The favorite has won each of Burnley’s last six EPL matches.

Total Points Facts

·        The ‘Both Teams to Score’ market has failed to hit in nine of Burnley’s last 10 league matches as an underdog.

·        The ‘Both Teams to Score’ market has hit in seven of Liverpool’s last eight EPL matches.

·        The ‘Both Teams to Score’ market has hit in five of Burnley’s last six EPL home matches.

·        The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in seven of Burnley’s last eight league matches.

·        The ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ market has hit in each of Liverpool’s last five EPL Week 4 matches as an away favorite.

·        The ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ market has hit in four of Liverpool’s last five EPL away matches.

Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction

Liverpool is 10-1-2 in their last 13 overall meetings against Burnley, and have won by 2+ goals in seven of their last eight wins. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction, Chelsea is coming as -300 road favorites. Liverpool started the season red-hot and is the only undefeated team still in the Premier League. They have an elite offense, averaging 2.67 goals per game, and they are up against a struggling Burnley defense, that is allowing 2 goals per game this season. Liverpool has been dominating Burnley historically and has no trouble winning by multiple goals. Take Liverpool by -1.5 goals in this one.