Pick details
| MATCHUP | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | New Mexico State Aggies |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Spread | +2.5 -108 | -2.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | +114 | -135 |
| Total | Over 57.5 (-110) | Under 57.5 (-110) |
| Where | New Mexico State Stadium | |
| When | Thursday, October 1, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | CBSSN | |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers beat Mercyhurst, lost to Indiana, and they play Missouri State next. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have lost 5 of their last 7 games. Rodney Tisdale Jr. is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 543 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jonathan Stafford Jr. and Cameron Flowers have combined for 287 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while CC Ezirim has 8 receptions.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers’ ground game is averaging 130.8 yards per contest, and Ajay Allen leads the way with 185 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Western Kentucky is allowing 41 points and 439 yards per game. Jaylen Lewis leads the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers with 30 tackles, Elin Jones has 1 sack, and Justin Brown has 1 interception.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
The New Mexico State Aggies lost to Hawaii and New Mexico, and they play FIU next. New Mexico State has lost 11 of its last 14 games. Trey Hedden is completing 54.3 percent of his passes for 887 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. TK King and Josiah Thomas have combined for 431 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while AJ Williams III has 11 receptions.
The New Mexico State Aggies’ ground game is averaging 136 yards per contest, and James Jones leads the way with 355 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico State is allowing 29.8 points and 376.5 yards per game. Nick Session leads the New Mexico State Aggies with 28 tackles, Gabe Peterson has 1.5 sacks, and Sone Aupiu has 1 interception.
Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win
- New Mexico State has won five of its last six home games in October.
- Western Kentucky has lost three of its last four games.
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The favorite has won the first half in each of New Mexico State’s last four games.
Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win
- Western Kentucky has won each of its last three October games as a road underdog.
- New Mexico State has lost five of its last six home games against conference opponents.
- Western Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last four October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has lost the first half in four of its last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Four of Western Kentucky’s last five October games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of New Mexico State’s last five October games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Nick Session ranks T12th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Rodney Tisdale Jr. ranks T2nd in Conference USA for TD: INT ratio (4.00) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- New Mexico State ranks T123rd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (7.8).
- New Mexico State ranks T123rd among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-3.8).
- Western Kentucky has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 20+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
- Western Kentucky has suffered the most road losses by a margin of 25+ points of any FBS team this season (3).
Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State Prediction
I guess New Mexico State is getting the benefit of the doubt because it’s at home, but the bottom line is these are two bad, struggling teams, and I’m not sure there’s much separation between them. If forced to pick a side, I’d want points in my pocket. It also doesn’t hurt that Western Kentucky has spent endless time on the road against quality teams.
You can argue WKU isn’t as bad; its record and numbers indicate that not many teams would look great playing Georgia and Indiana. Western Kentucky has seen 5 of its last 6 regular season games come on the road. This is a battle-tested team. Maybe stepping down in competition could lead to a victory. Give me the points.
Randy Chambers's Pick: Western Kentucky +2.5
