Pick details
| MATCHUP | Utah State Aggies | San Diego State Aztecs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-5 | 4-5 |
| Spread | -2.5 -118 | +2.5 -102 |
| Moneyline | -142 | +120 |
| Total | Over 42.5 (-108) | Under 42.5 (-112) |
| Where | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 09:30 PM EST | |
| TV | USA Net | |
Utah State vs San Diego State Prediction
I’ll lean toward San Diego State but this one’s a coin flip. The Aztecs had a close escape 26-20 at home versus a struggling Washington State team last weekend. SDSU managed 305 yards and 18 first downs offensively with just 104 passing yards and a 5-of-11 success rate on third downs. The Aztecs have 26 or more points in three straight games though, winning two of those.
As for Utah State, they’re coming off a seven-point win over a decent Fresno State team, posting 269 yards (152 rushing), 15 first downs and 5-of-13 on third downs. The Aggies defense gave up 278 yards on the other side with 15 first downs and 5-of-15 on third-down conversions. Utah State has won three of the last four games, and they’ve held opponents to fewer than 21 points in all four of those outings. Trouble is, the offense hasn’t been able to surpass 17 points in three of those. If San Diego State can get going on the scoreboard quickly here I don’t think Utah State has the gas to keep pace. If it’s a defense-oriented game, the Aggies should fare better.
Game Info, Stats and Previews
The Utah State Aggies and the San Diego State Aztecs meet Saturday in college football action from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. Here’s a collection of relevant information and reasoning for a sound Utah State vs San Diego State prediction. We have looked at this information from a betting perspective and attempted to determine the best Utah State vs San Diego State pick. We will also examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. We will tie it all together to the pick summary, resulting in a sensible prediction for a favorable betting outcome in this game.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview
The Aggies didn’t start out the year so well but they’ve been better lately. Utah State opened with three straight losses versus Idaho State, Washington and Utah. A 2-2 run came next with wins over Troy and Washington State mixed among losses to Boise State and Texas State. Since then the Aggies have beaten Colorado State and Fresno State, giving the team a 4-5 overall record in the books.
In their last matchup over the weekend versus Fresno State, the Aggies were able to score two touchdowns in the second quarter for a 14-0 halftime lead. Utah State added a field goal in the fourth quarter and held on for the win 17-10 in the end. QB McCae Hillstead was 9-of-14 for 117 yards while also leading the rush on 12 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown. Anthony Garcia added two catches for 39 yards.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
Over on the San Diego State side, they beat Portland State in their opener before falling to UCLA, James Madison and Toledo in the next trio. The Aztecs are 3-2 since then, losing to Oregon State and Colorado State alongside wins over Texas State, Fresno State and Washington State. In nine games that gives the Aztecs a 4-5 overall run so far.
Matched up against Washington State last weekend the Aztecs game up a couple of touchdowns in the first half on the way to a 17-14 advantage. San Diego State added nine more points from there for a 26-20 victory in the end. QB Stone Saunders was 12-of-21 for 102 yards and a pick while Lucky Sutton paced the rush with 18 totes for 115 yards.
Utah State Aggies @ San Diego State Aztecs Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win
- San Diego State has won each of its last seven home games against conference opponents.
- Utah State has lost each of its last four road games.
- San Diego State has covered the spread in each of its last seven games against conference opponents at Snapdragon Stadium.
- Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as a road favorite.
- Utah State has lost the first half in four of its last five games as a favorite.
Why the Utah State Aggies will win
- Utah State has won each of its last nine November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- San Diego State has lost five of its last six games against teams from Utah.
- Utah State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in November.
- San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games as an underdog against teams from Utah.
- San Diego State has lost the first half in three of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Utah State’s last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of San Diego State’s last four games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
San Diego State Aztecs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Nathan Acevedo leads San Diego State for receptions (23) this season.
Utah State Aggies Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Eli Wood leads Utah State for touchdowns (5) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- San Diego State has the worst single-game yard differential in a win this season (239-565 vs Texas State in Week 5).
- San Diego State ranks 138th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:19).
- Utah State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (70.8).
- Utah State ranks T131st among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (4.4).
