UNLV vs New Mexico Prediction 11/14/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

UNLV vs New Mexico Prediction

In this UNLV vs New Mexico prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, New Mexico is coming as -14.5 home favorites. New Mexico has been the far better team this season, having lost only once in their nine games played, they are 7-2 against the spread and have been undefeated at home. They have an elite defense, allowing just 10.9 points per game and a +23.7 point differential, while UNLV has lost two of its last three games, having failed to cover all of them and its defense has been shaky lately, having allowed 41 points in two of their last three games. The value here lies with the home team, so take New Mexico and lay the -14.5 points.

New Mexico Lobos Preview

New Mexico has an 8-1 record and a 5-0 record in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 31-3 road win against Nevada, following a 21-16 road win against San José State and a 21-16 home win against North Dakota State, and will face Wyoming and Air Force next.

Offensively, New Mexico averages 34.6 points per game, while defensively, they allow 10.9 points per game. New Mexico averages 362.6 total yards per game (149.4 passing and 213.1 rushing), while allowing 240.2 total yards per game (71.6 rushing and 168.7 passing). They average 63 plays per game and 5.8 yards per play on offense, while allowing 57.8 plays per game and 4.2 yards per play on defense. New Mexico averages 19.2 first downs per game on offense and 13.3 first downs per game on defense.

Toa Fa’avae leads New Mexico with 1,041 passing yards with 59.5% completed passes and 7 touchdowns. Scottre Humphrey leads the team in rushing yards with 647, while Cade Keith has a team-high 358 receiving yards and 26 receptions. Defensively, Mercury Swaim has a team-high 55 total tackles (27 of them solo), while Brett Karhu leads the team with 7.5 sacks.

UNLV Rebels Preview

UNLV has a 5-4 record and a 3-2 record in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 35-41 home loss against Wyoming, following a 31-24 home win against Northern Illinois and a 31-41 road loss against Air Force, and will face San José State and Nevada next.

Offensively, UNLV averages 26.1 points per game, while defensively, they allow 25.7 points per game. UNLV averages 374.6 total yards per game (200.6 passing and 174 rushing), while allowing 405 total yards per game (207.7 rushing and 197.3 passing). They average 65.4 plays per game and 5.7 yards per play on offense, while allowing 68.4 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on defense. UNLV averages 19.2 first downs per game on offense and 21.2 first downs per game on defense.

Jackson Arnold leads UNLV with 1,738 passing yards with 58.7% completed passes and 15 touchdowns. Jai’Den Thomas leads the team in rushing yards with 753, while Kayden McGee has a team-high 475 receiving yards and 22 receptions. Defensively, Jake Pope has a team-high 76 total tackles (32 of them solo), while Tre Fulton leads the team with 3.5 sacks.

UNLV Rebels @ New Mexico Lobos Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• New Mexico has won each of its last 11 games at University Stadium.
• New Mexico has covered the spread in each of its last five games at University Stadium.
• UNLV has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games against conference opponents.
• UNLV has lost the first half in each of its last four games against AP-ranked teams.

Why the UNLV Rebels will win

• New Mexico has lost four of its last five November games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• The road team has won seven of the last eight games between UNLV and New Mexico.
• New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six November games as a home favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
• UNLV has covered the spread in eight of its last nine road games against AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between UNLV and New Mexico have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of UNLV’s last four games at University Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

New Mexico Lobos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Scottre Humphrey leads the Mountain West Conference for rushing touchdowns (13) this season.

UNLV Rebels Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Kayden McGee leads the Mountain West Conference for receiving touchdowns (6) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• New Mexico ranks 1st among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (120).
• New Mexico ranks T1st among FBS teams for interceptions this season (17).
• UNLV ranks T15th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (10).
• UNLV ranks 121st among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (5.1).

Nick Lagouretos's Pick: New Mexico -14.5