Pick details
| MATCHUP | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-0 | 2-1 |
| Spread | -21.5 -112 | +21.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | -1800 | +1000 |
| Total | Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110) |
| Where | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC | |
| When | Saturday, October 3, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish beat Michigan State and Purdue, and play Stanford next. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have won 14 straight games. CJ Carr is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 963 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert have combined for 573 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Jaden Greathouse has 6 receptions.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish ground game is averaging 141.8 yards per contest, and Aneyas Williams leads the way with 224 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Notre Dame is allowing 8.3 points and 199.3 yards per game. Drayk Bowen leads the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with 22 tackles, Bryce Young has 3 sacks, and DJ McKinney has 1 interception.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels beat East Tennessee State, lost to Clemson, and they play Pittsburgh next. North Carolina has split its last 8 games. Billy Edwards Jr. is completing 56.4 percent of his passes for 611 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jelani Thurman and Jordan Shipp have combined for 347 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while C.J. Sadler has 4 receptions.
The North Carolina Tar Heels’ ground game is averaging 155 yards per contest, and Benjamin Hall leads the way with 215 yards on 33 carries. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 13.7 points and 312.3 yards per game. Derek McDonald leads the North Carolina Tar Heels with 24 tackles, Xavier Lewis has 6 sacks, and Greg Smith III has 2 interceptions.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won three of its last four October home games against AP-ranked teams.
- North Carolina has covered the spread in each of its last five October home games against AP-ranked teams.
- Notre Dame has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three October games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will win
- Notre Dame has won each of its last 14 games.
- North Carolina has lost each of its last nine October games as a home underdog.
- Notre Dame has covered the spread in each of its last six games as a favorite against teams from North Carolina.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games in North Carolina.
- North Carolina has lost the first half in four of its last five games as a home underdog.
Total Points Facts
- Six of North Carolina’s last seven games against non-conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Notre Dame’s last five October games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, Xavier Lewis ranks 1st in the Atlantic Coast Conference for sacks (6.0) this season.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 5, CJ Carr ranks 11th among qualified players for passer rating (184.8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- North Carolina ranks 4th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (62.5).
- North Carolina ranks 133rd among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (6.7).
- Notre Dame has recorded more total yards than its opponents in each of its last 14 games- the longest active streak in the FBS.
- Notre Dame has averaged 48.0 points over its last six games – most in the FBS over that span.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Prediction
Don’t love hooks on top of key numbers, but Notre Dame should bully North Carolina in the trenches. The Tar Heels have improved greatly in the second season under this coaching staff, but the offense is still dookie and will have an even tougher time against this Irish defense. North Carolina is 95th in total offense and 102nd in scoring offense. This is a spot where it feels like Notre Dame will wear down its opponent over time and cruise toward a comfortable road win. I’ll lay the points.
Randy Chambers's Pick: Notre Dame -21.5
