Pick details
| MATCHUP | North Texas Mean Green | Texas State Bobcats |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Spread | +2.5 -105 | -2.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | +120 | -142 |
| Total | Over 62.5 (-108) | Under 62.5 (-112) |
| Where | UFCU Stadium, San Marcos, TX | |
| When | Saturday, September 19, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | USA Net | |
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview
The North Texas Mean Green lost to Indiana, beat UNLV, and they play Houston Christian next. North Texas has won 12 of its last 15 games. Tayven Jackson is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 425 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Corri Milliner and Justin Stevenson have combined for 221 receiving yards on 11 catches, while Jahiem White has 9 receptions.
The North Texas Mean Green ground game is averaging 167.5 yards per contest, and Jahiem White leads the way with 185 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, North Texas is allowing 29 points and 333 yards per game. CJ Coombes leads the North Texas Mean Green with 17 tackles, David Onuoha has 1.5 sacks, and Bryce Garza has 1 interception.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
The Texas State Bobcats lost to Texas and UTSA, and they play Incarnate Word next. Texas State has lost 7 of its last 11 games. Brad Jackson is completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 342 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Kylen Evans and Chris Dawn Jr. have combined for 196 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Tucker Cusano has 4 receptions.
The Texas State Bobcats’ ground game averages 225 yards per contest, and Torrance Burgess Jr. leads with 183 yards on 29 carries. On defense, Texas State allows 45 points and 457 yards per game. Jayden Lawton leads the Texas State Bobcats with 18 tackles, Tymere Jackson has 1 sack, and Ryan Nolan has 1 interception.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- North Texas has lost 12 of its last 13 games as an underdog in Texas.
- Texas State has won eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at UFCU Stadium.
- The favorite has covered the spread in three of Texas State’s last four games.
- North Texas has lost the first half in each of its last six games as an underdog against teams from Texas.
Why the North Texas Mean Green will win
- North Texas has won 14 of its last 15 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Texas State has lost three of its last four September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- North Texas has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games in Texas.
- Texas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games as a favorite.
Total Points Facts
- Each of North Texas’ last seven September road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Texas State’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 3, Brad Jackson ranks 2nd in the Pac-12 Conference amongst qualified players for sack percentage (1.9%) this season.
North Texas Mean Green Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 3, Jahiem White is one of only 18 players averaging over 50.0 rushing yards and 20.0 receiving yards per game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State ranks 136th among FBS teams for points allowed per game this season (45.0).
- Texas State ranks T136th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-12.5).
- North Texas ranks T123rd among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-5.5).
- North Texas ranks T19th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (12.0).
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
Texas State was supposed to be a conference contender entering the season, but it got smoked by Texas and lost to UTSA as a slight favorite. I’m sorry, but I’m not excited to lay points after these first two games. Texas State hasn’t been able to finish drives offensively and has been a train wreck defensively. I don’t care what you think of North Texas; this Texas State hasn’t lived up to its potential up to this point. Give me North Texas and the points.
