Pick details
| MATCHUP | New Mexico State Aggies | Missouri State Bears |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Spread | +1.5 -112 | -1.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Total | Over 49.5 (-105) | Under 49.5 (-115) |
| Where | Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, MO | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
New Mexico State vs. Missouri State Prediction
New Mexico State is absolutely dreadful, and that includes scoring 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games. New Mexico State has scored a combined 14 points in its last two games. The Aggies are 106th in total offense and 117th in scoring offense. No, thanks. Missouri State isn’t much better and is a bad team on both sides of the ball. I get it. However, Missouri State has won three of its four games at home this season and just gave FIU a run for its money on the road.
Missouri State has covered three of its last four games and is playing some of its best ball of the season. While both teams have struggled this season, there’s levels to the suck. New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in college football. I’ll lay the small number with Missouri State.
New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview
The New Mexico State Aggies lost to Jacksonville State and Liberty, and they play Delaware next. New Mexico State has lost 3 of its last 4 games. Trey Hedden is completing 54.9 percent of his passes for 1,162 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Hedden has been sacked 11 times this season. TK King has 307 yards and 3 touchdowns on 23 catches. Josiah Thomas has 248 yards on 19 catches. AJ Williams III has 409 yards and 5 touchdowns on 25 catches.
The New Mexico State Aggies’ ground game is averaging 144.2 yards per contest, and James Jones leads the way with 940 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, New Mexico State is allowing 25.8 points and 351.1 yards per game. Nick Session leads New Mexico State with 68 tackles. Gabe Peterson has 5.5 sacks. Josiah Charles has 2 interceptions.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview
The Missouri State Bears lost to FIU, beat Sam Houston, and they play Jacksonville State next. Missouri State has lost 5 of its last 7 games. Henry Belin IV is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,302 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Belin has been sacked 13 times this season. Isaiah Myers has 941 yards and 8 touchdowns on 46 catches. Jmariyae Robinson has 498 yards and 1 touchdown on 50 catches. Mekhi Miller has 192 yards on 16 catches.
The Missouri State Bears’ ground game is averaging 122.7 yards per contest, and Connor Lair leads the way with 325 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Missouri State is allowing 30 points and 424.4 yards per game. Jared Lloyd leads Missouri State with 102 tackles. Josh Lukusa has 3 sacks. Jashawn Cooper has 1 interception.
Why the Missouri State Bears will win
- The home team has won each of Missouri State’s last six games.
- New Mexico State has lost each of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The home team has covered the spread in four of Missouri State’s last five games.
- The favorite has won the first half in 12 of New Mexico State’s last 14 games.
Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win
- New Mexico State has won five of its last six November road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Missouri State has lost each of its last three November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- New Mexico State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight November games as a road underdog.
Total Points Facts
- Five of New Mexico State’s last six games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Four of Missouri State’s last five games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
Missouri State Bears Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Isaiah Myers leads the Conference USA for receiving touchdowns (8) this season.
New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, James Jones leads the Conference USA in rushing yards (940) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Missouri State ranks 131st among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (207).
- Missouri State ranks T130th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.4).
- New Mexico State ranks 124th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-3.0).
- New Mexico State ranks 123rd among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (157).
Randy Chambers's Pick: Missouri State -1.5
