Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate a Missouri vs Mississippi State prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 26th at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 4 matchup. 

Missouri Tigers Betting Preview

The Missouri Tigers are 3-0 (0-0) this year after they defeated Troy by a score of 27-17 last week. Missouri trailed 10-0 after the first quarter, but they led 24-17 at halftime, before winning the second half 3-0 to escape with the win. The Tigers were out gained by a total of 323-230, went 2-11 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Austin Simmons threw for 91 yards and one touchdown, while Donovan Olugbode caught three passes for 31 yards and one score. Jamal Roberts rushed 22 times for 128 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Prior to that game, Missouri defeated Kansas by a score of 38-21 and Arkansas Pine-Bluff by a score of 54-14. The Tigers have scored 39.7 points per game with 246.7 passing yards and 173.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.3 points against per game this season. Austin Simmons has thrown for 635 yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions, while Jamal Roberts has rushed 63 times for 300 yards and three scores this year. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 3-0 (1-0) this season after they defeated South Carolina by a score of 41-34 last week. Mississippi State trailed 23-14 at halftime, but they scored 27 points in the second half for the comeback win. The Bulldogs were out gained by a total of 431-393, went 5-11 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Kamario Taylor threw for 251 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, while Zion Ragins caught two passes for 61 yards and one score. Fluff Bothwell rushed 21 times for 115 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Mississippi State defeated Minnesota by a score of 38-13 and ULM by a score of 62-13. The Bulldogs have scored 47.0 points per game with 300.7 passing yards and 244.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 20.0 points against per game this season. Kamario Taylor has thrown for 832 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception, while Fluff Bothwell has rushed 48 times for 280 yards and two scores this season. 

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Missouri has lost each of its last five road games against AP-ranked teams.
• Mississippi State has won 16 of its last 17 games as a favorite in Mississippi.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games as a favorite in Mississippi.
• Missouri has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against AP-ranked teams.
• Missouri has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams.

Why the Missouri Tigers will win

• Mississippi State has lost each of its last 13 home games against conference opponents.
• Missouri has won each of its last 10 September games as an AP-ranked team.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• Missouri has covered the spread in each of its last three road games in September.
• The team ranked 19th in the AP Poll has won the first half in each of its last three games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Mississippi State’s last eight games against conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Missouri’s last five September games as an underdog against AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Kamario Taylor ranks 2nd in the league for TD:INT ratio (11.00) this season.

Missouri Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Donovan Olugbode ranks T7th amongst FBS players for receiving touchdowns (4) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Mississippi State ranks T6th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (82).
• Mississippi State ranks 10th among FBS teams for points per game this season (47.0).
• Missouri ranks T8th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+14.3).
• Missouri ranks T15th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (2.3).

Missouri vs Mississippi State Prediction 

Mississippi State comes into this matchup after two road wins against Minnesota and South Carolina, and they have scored 38+ points in all three of their games. The Bulldogs have an elite quarterback and their rushing game has also been strong. Missouri picked up a solid win over Kansas in week two, but they struggled to deal with Troy last week. We know the Mississippi State defense is not very good, so I expect the Tigers to have a better offensive day. We should see plenty of points in this one, so I like the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 58.5