Michigan State vs Wisconsin Prediction 10/3/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and the Wisconsin Badgers meet in week 5 college football action from Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Prediction.

Michigan State Spartans Recap

The Michigan State Spartans come into this game looking to rebound from their 31-13 loss at the hands of Nebraska last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, Michigan State will head home for a matchup with the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Sparty Looking To Get Back Above .500

Alessio Milivojevic has thrown for 748 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 67.0% passing while Cam Edwards leads Michigan State in rushing with 304 yards and 3 touchdowns so far this season. Jaziun Patterson sits behind Edwards on the ground with 100 yards and 2 TDs. Rodney Bullard Jr. leads the Spartans in receiving with 193 yards and 14 catches along with 1 TD, while Jayden Savoury trails with 153 yards and 13 catches. On defense, Devin Vaught has a team-high 26 tackles while Michigan State’s defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and 1 interception so far this season.

Wisconsin Badgers Recap

The Wisconsin Badgers will be out to add on to their 24-20 win over Penn State last time out to improve to 3-1 on the year. After this game, Wisconsin will head on the road for a game against UCLA.

Badgers Looking To Enter Bye On Win Streak

Colton Joseph has thrown for 987 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 58.5% passing while Abu Sama III leads Wisconsin in rushing with 190 yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Darrion Dupree sits behind Sama III on the ground with 134 yards and 2 TDs. Tyrell Henry leads the Badgers in receiving with 307 yards and 24 catches along with 1 TD, while Jacob Harris trails with 203 yards and 11 catches. On defense, Cooper Catalano has a team-high 35 tackles while Wisconsin’s defense as a whole has combined for 5 sacks and 3 interceptions so far this season.

Michigan State Spartans @ Wisconsin Badgers Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Wisconsin Badgers will win

• Michigan State has lost each of its last 10 road games.
• The favorite has won each of Michigan State’s last 10 games.
• Wisconsin has covered the spread in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• The favorite has won the first quarter in each of Michigan State’s last six games.
• Michigan State has lost the first half in each of its last 12 games as an underdog.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Wisconsin has lost each of its last five games in October.
• The underdog has won three of the last four games between Michigan State and Wisconsin.
• Michigan State has covered the spread in each of its last six road games.
• Wisconsin has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three home games in October.
• Michigan State has won the first quarter in four of its last five October games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Wisconsin has lost the first half in 11 of its last 12 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Wisconsin’s last eight home games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Michigan State’s last five games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Wisconsin Badgers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Gavin Lahm ranks T5th amongst FBS players for made field goals (8) this season.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Liam Boyd ranks T5th amongst FBS players for made field goals (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Wisconsin ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
• Wisconsin ranks 22nd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (163.8).
• Michigan State ranks T4th among FBS teams for sacks this season (15.0).
• Michigan State ranks 8th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (85.7).

Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Prediction

I’m on Wisconsin here. I just think the Badgers are the better team when it comes down to it at the end of the day and I sti don’t trust this Michigan State offense to be consistent as we’ve seen them really struggle in their first couple of outings in Big Ten play so far. I think Wisconsin and Colton Joseph’s dual threat ability really hurt Sparty here and Wisconsin wins by double digits.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Wisconsin -9.5