Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction 11/7/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction

Michigan State is in far worse shape than the Wolverines, but that’s not saying much. Michigan has done nothing to allow two touchdowns against anybody. I’ve always said that just because one team stinks doesn’t mean we’ll lay unlimited points with the other side. Sparty has done nothing that makes me want to get behind them, but that doesn’t mean I’m laying two touchdowns with the Wolverines. Michigan is awful in its own right.

Also, this is still a rivalry game, and I love my dogs in rivalries. A lot of times you can throw the points out the window in these spots. The underdog has covered five of the last 10 meetings between Michigan State and Michigan, and three of those covers were outright wins. It’s MSU and the points or pass for me on Saturday.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans lost to Northwestern and UCLA, and they play Washington next. The Michigan State Spartans have lost 6 straight games. Alessio Milivojevic is completing 65.4 percent of his passes for 1,263 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Chrishon McCray and Jayden Savoury have combined for 560 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Rodney Bullard Jr. has 21 receptions.

The Michigan State Spartans’ ground game is averaging 110.1 yards per contest, and Jaziun Patterson leads the way with 327 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 25.8 points and 355.1 yards per game. Devin Vaught leads the Michigan State Spartans with 52 tackles, Eli Coenen has 3.5 sacks, and Kenny Soares Jr. has 1 interception.

Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

The Michigan Wolverines beat Rutgers, lost to Indiana, and they play Oregon next. Michigan has lost 3 of its last 5 games. Bryce Underwood is completing 58.1 percent of his passes for 924 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh have combined for 986 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns, while Hogan Hansen has 13 receptions.

The Michigan Wolverines ground game is averaging 138 yards per contest, and Jordan Marshall leads the way with 319 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan is allowing 16.4 points and 250 yards per game. Troy Bowles leads the Michigan Wolverines with 57 tackles, John Henry Daley has 4 sacks, and Nathaniel Staehling has 1 interception.

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

• Michigan has won each of its last 11 November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last 10 road games against conference opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Michigan State and Michigan.
• Michigan has won the first half in 36 of its last 38 games as a favorite in Michigan.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan has lost three of its last four games against conference opponents at Michigan Stadium.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Michigan’s last five games.
• Michigan has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan’s last seven games against conference opponents at Michigan Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of Michigan State’s last eight road games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.

Michigan Wolverines Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, JJ Buchanan leads Michigan for receiving yards (611) this season.

Michigan State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 10, Kenneth Williams ranks 8th amongst FBS players for kick return yards (418) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Seven of Michigan’s eight games this season have been decided by a margin of seven points or less – most among FBS teams.
• Michigan ranks T2nd among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.3).
• Michigan State ranks T12th among FBS teams for sacks this season (24.0).
• Michigan State ranks T127th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (2).

Randy Chambers's Pick: Michigan State +13.5