Massachusetts vs Sacramento State Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The UMass Minutemen and the Sacramento State Hornets meet in week 4 college football action from Hornet Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a UMass Minutemen vs. Sacramento State Hornets Prediction.

UMass Minutemen Recap

The UMass Minutemen come into this game looking to add on to their 36-14 win over Stonehill last time out to sit at 3-0 this season. After this game, UMass will head home for a game against Eastern Michigan.

Minutemen Looking To Stay Unbeaten

William Watson III has thrown for 509 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception on 75.4% passing while Elijah Faulkner leads UMass in rushing with 195 rushing yards and 0 touchdowns so far this season. Curtis Kimmons IV sits behind Faulkner on the ground with 128 yards and 2 TDs, while Watson III has also added 82 rushing yards and 2 scores. T.Y. Harding leads the Minutemen in receiving with 177 yards on 10 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Joseph Griffin Jr. trails with 134 yards on 8 catches. On defense, Timmy Hinspeter has a team-high 24 total tackles, Jahmad Harmon leads the unit with 3 interceptions, and William DePaepe leads the team with 2 sacks. Massachusetts’ defense as a whole has combined for 7 sacks and 5 interceptions so far this season.

Sacramento State Hornets Recap

The Sacramento State Hornets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 31-10 loss at the hands of North Dakota State last time out to sit at 1-3 this season. After this game, Sacramento State will head on the road for a game against Bowling Green.

Hornets Drop Back-To-Back Games

Jackson Sharman has thrown for 638 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 58.8% passing while Isaiah Finkley leads Sacramento State in rushing with 150 rushing yards and 1 touchdown so far this season. Daniel Swinney sits behind Finkley on the ground with 104 yards and 1 TD. Matt Cullen leads the Hornets in receiving with 227 yards on 22 catches along with 2 touchdowns, while Ontaria Smith Jr. trails with 200 yards on 18 catches. On defense, Boogie Silvera has a team-high 22 total tackles, while Fata Puloka leads the team with 1.5 sacks. Sacramento State’s defense as a whole has combined for 4.5 sacks and 0 interceptions so far this season.

Massachusetts Minutemen @ Sacramento State Hornets Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Sacramento State Hornets will win

• Massachusetts has lost each of its last 10 games against conference opponents.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Sacramento State’s last four games.
• Massachusetts has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six September games as a favorite.
• Massachusetts has lost the first half in 23 of its last 25 road games in September.

Why the Massachusetts Minutemen will win

• The favorite has won 24 of Massachusetts’ last 26 games.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of Massachusetts’ last six games.
• The favorite has won the first half in seven of Massachusetts’ last eight games.
• Massachusetts has won the first quarter in each of its last five games as a favorite.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Massachusetts’ last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Sacramento State Hornets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Jackson Sharman ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (1.0%) this season.

Massachusetts Minutemen Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Jahmad Harmon ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Sacramento State ranks T133rd among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (15.0).
• Sacramento State ranks T131st among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-7.5).
• Massachusetts ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Massachusetts ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).

UMass Minutemen vs. Sacramento State Hornets Prediction

I’m on the under in this game. This is the toughest travel spot UMass will have this season and I think it could be a bit sluggish for them here, but I also think Sac State isn’t very good in their own right. I think this just ends up being a 27-17 kind of game, so give me the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 48.5