Pick details
| MATCHUP | Louisville Cardinals | North Carolina Tar Heels |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Spread | -3.5 -110 | +3.5 -110 |
| Moneyline | -180 | +150 |
| Total | Over 58.5 (-112) | Under 58.5 (-108) |
| Where | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC | |
| When | Saturday, November 14, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN2 | |
Louisville vs North Carolina Prediction
Louisville has found its stride over the last month and is rolling with one of the best offenses in the country. Louisville is second in both total offense and scoring offense. I understand being favored in this spot. North Carolina isn’t polished on either end of the field, but it competes and finds ways to stay in games. The Tar Heels have covered five of their last six games, and they’ve outright won two of their last three games as an underdog.
Also, while Louisville can score with the best of them, it’s rolling out a defense that’s 134th in total offense, 137th in pass defense, and 104th in scoring defense. Louisville can’t stop anybody. We’re getting a hook on top of a key number. Give me UNC and the points in a game, and it could win outright.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
The Louisville Cardinals beat Georgia Tech and Stanford, and they play Pitt next. Louisville has won 4 straight games. Lincoln Kienholz is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,276 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Kienholz has been sacked 14 times this season. Tre Richardson has 685 yards and 3 touchdowns on 44 catches. Lawayne McCoy has 513 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25 catches. TreyShun Hurry has 474 yards and 2 touchdowns on 39 catches.
The Louisville Cardinals’ ground game is averaging 256.5 yards per contest, and Isaac Brown leads the way with 745 yards and 8 touchdowns. Defensively, Louisville is allowing 29.1 points and 455 yards per game. Stanquan Clark leads Louisville with 64 tackles. Clev Lubin has 7 sacks. Kaleb Beasley has 5 interceptions.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels beat UConn, lost to Miami, and they play Virginia next. North Carolina has split its last 8 games. Billy Edwards Jr. is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,127 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Edwards has been sacked 20 times this season. Jelani Thurman has 525 yards and 8 touchdowns on 45 catches. Jordan Shipp has 642 yards and 4 touchdowns on 50 catches. Trech Kekahuna has 248 yards and 1 touchdown on 21 catches.
The North Carolina Tar Heels’ ground game is averaging 114.2 yards per contest, and Benjamin Hall leads the way with 377 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 22.8 points and 377 yards per game. Derek McDonald leads North Carolina with 89 tackles. Xavier Lewis has 7 sacks. Greg Smith III has 3 interceptions.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- The underdog has covered the spread in each of North Carolina’s last four games at Kenan Stadium.
- Louisville has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games in North Carolina.
- Louisville has lost the first half in each of its last three games in North Carolina.
Why the Louisville Cardinals will win
- Louisville has won each of its last four games.
- North Carolina has lost 12 of its last 13 games as an underdog in North Carolina.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 November home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Louisville has covered the spread in six of its last seven November games as a road favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Louisville has won the first half in four of its last five November games as a road favorite.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Louisville’s last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of North Carolina’s last four November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
North Carolina Tar Heels Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Jordan Shipp leads North Carolina for receptions (50) this season.
Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Keyjuan Brown ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (7.8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- North Carolina ranks 121st among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (114.2).
- North Carolina ranks T119th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-2.6).
- Louisville is one of two FBS teams to score 25+ points in every game this season.
- Louisville ranks T5th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+6.9).
