Florida vs Kentucky Prediction 11/14/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

In this Florida vs Kentucky prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Saturday, November 14th, Kentucky is coming as -3.5 home favorites. Kentucky has been the better team this season, with an almost perfect home record and in excellent form, with a 6-1 record in their last 7 games. On the flip side, Florida is 1-4 both straight up and against the spread in its last 5 games and their strong offense is taking a hit on the road, having scored just 25 points in two of its last three road games combined. Facing a strong Kentucky defense on the road, where they have lost and failed to cover their last three visits means trouble, and I will lay the small number with the Kentucky Wildcats in this one.

Kentucky Wildcats Preview

Kentucky has a 7-2 record and a 5-2 conference record, sitting on the 2nd place of the SEC, while having a 4-1 home record and a 3-1 away record. They are coming off a 6-34 road loss against Tennessee, following a 34-17 home win against Vanderbilt and a 21-13 road win against Oklahoma, and will face Missouri and Louisville next.

Offensively, Kentucky averages 29.9 points per game, while defensively, they allow 25.8 points per game. Kentucky averages 383.6 total yards per game (219.9 passing and 163.7 rushing), while allowing 365.6 total yards per game (127.3 rushing and 238.2 passing). They average 64.8 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 67.7 plays per game and 5.4 yards per play on defense. Kentucky averages 20.4 first downs per game on offense and 19.8 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.7 yards per rush attempt. Kentucky has scored 33 touchdowns this season (14 passing and 16 rushing). They are converting 34.91% of their third downs and 55.56% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 2 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 12 passes.

Kenny Minchey leads Kentucky with 1,979 passing yards with 69.9% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. CJ Baxter leads the team in rushing yards with 541, while Kenny Darby has a team-high 576 receiving yards and 45 receptions. Defensively, Grant Godfrey has a team-high 78 total tackles (30 of them solo), while Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace leads the team with 6 sacks.

Florida Gators Preview

Florida has a 5-4 record and a 3-4 conference record, sitting on the 10th place of the SEC, while having a 3-2 home record, a 2-1 away record, and a 0-1 neutral record. They are coming off a 7-23 home loss against Oklahoma, following a 8-27 neutral loss against Georgia and a 27-24 road win against Texas, and will face Vanderbilt and Florida State next.

Offensively, Florida averages 32.4 points per game, while defensively, they allow 27.6 points per game. Florida averages 400.6 total yards per game (236.3 passing and 164.2 rushing), while allowing 367.2 total yards per game (134.7 rushing and 232.6 passing). They average 67.4 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 67.3 plays per game and 5.5 yards per play on defense. Florida averages 21.2 first downs per game on offense and 20.1 first downs per game on defense. They average 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.4 yards per rush attempt. Florida has scored 37 touchdowns this season (13 passing and 22 rushing). They are converting 41.59% of their third downs and 58.82% of their fourth downs. They have thrown 10 interceptions this season, while their defense has intercepted 4 passes.

Aaron Philo leads Florida with 1,367 passing yards with 70.5% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Jadan Baugh leads the team in rushing yards with 836, while Dallas Wilson has a team-high 465 receiving yards and 35 receptions. Defensively, Myles Graham has a team-high 70 total tackles (39 of them solo), while Jayden Woods and Emmanuel Oyebadejo lead the team with 4.5 sacks each.

Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win

• Kentucky has won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams at Kroger Field.
• Florida has lost nine of its last 11 November games against AP-ranked teams.
• Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last five home games against Florida.
• Florida has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
• Florida has lost the first half in each of its last five games against conference opponents.

Why the Florida Gators will win

• The underdog has won four of the last five games between Florida and Kentucky.
• Kentucky has lost 11 of its last 14 home games against conference opponents.
• The underdog has covered the spread in four of the last five games between Florida and Kentucky.
• Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games in November.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Florida’s last four games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of Kentucky’s last six November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Kentucky Wildcats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Jordan Castell ranks T6th amongst FBS players for interceptions (4) this season.

Florida Gators Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 11, Jadan Baugh leads the Southeastern Conference for rushing touchdowns (14) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Kentucky ranks T118th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (90.9).
• Kentucky ranks 112th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (34.9).
• Florida ranks T106th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (4).
• Florida ranks T34th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (8.4).

Nick Lagouretos's Pick: Kentucky -3.5