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Pick details
| MATCHUP | Florida State Seminoles | Pittsburgh Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 4-5 | 6-3 |
| Spread | +3.5 -112 | -3.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | +142 | -170 |
| Total | Over 54.5 (-105) | Under 54.5 (-115) |
| Where | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA | |
| When | Friday, November 13, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:00 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN | |
Florida State vs Pitt Prediction
In this Florida State vs Pitt prediction for this College Football Week 11 matchup on Friday, November 13th, Pitt is coming as -3.5 home favorites. Pitt has been the better team this season but neither team has been in good form lately, as Pitt is 1-3 in its last 4 games and 1-3 against the spread, while Florida State is also 1-3 in its last 4 games. Pitt has been almost perfect at home with a 5-1 record and has a slightly better offense and a superior defense, allowing 8.5 points per game less than Florida State, who has been terrible on the road, with a 1-3 record, having allowed 43, 44 and 50 points in three of its four road games, so I don’t expect them to keep this one close with such bad road defense. Take Pitt and lay the small number at home.
Pitt Panthers Preview
Pitt has a 6-3 record and a 3-3 record in the ACC. They are coming off a 34-11 home win against Georgia Tech and will face Louisville and California next.
Offensively, Pitt averages 31.9 points per game, ranking 46th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 19.8 points per game, which is 32nd. Pitt averages 446.1 total yards per game (278.4 passing and 167.7 rushing), while allowing 320.9 total yards per game (68.3 rushing and 252.6 passing). They average 72 plays per game and 6.2 yards per play on offense, while allowing 64.2 plays per game and 5 yards per play on defense. Pitt averages 23.6 first downs per game on offense and 17.4 first downs per game on defense. They are averaging 1.2 turnovers per game and forcing 1.4 turnovers per game.
Mason Heintschel leads Pitt with 1,304 passing yards with 66.2% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Damon Ferguson Jr. leads the team in rushing yards with 662, while Cataurus Hicks has a team-high 698 receiving yards and 34 receptions. Defensively, Cruce Brookins has a team-high 61 total tackles (36 of them solo), while Jaeden Moore leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
Florida State Seminoles Preview
Florida State has a 4-5 record and a 2-4 record in the ACC. They are coming off a 31-24 road win against Boston College and will face NC State and Florida next.
Offensively, Florida State averages 30.7 points per game, ranking 51st in the nation, while defensively, they allow 28.3 points per game, which is 102nd. Florida State averages 410.6 total yards per game (240.8 passing and 169.8 rushing), while allowing 412.8 total yards per game (173.3 rushing and 239.4 passing). They average 65 plays per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 68.6 plays per game and 6 yards per play on defense. Florida State averages 20.3 first downs per game on offense and 21.4 first downs per game on defense. They are averaging 1.7 turnovers per game and forcing 0.9 turnovers per game.
Ashton Daniels leads Florida State with 2,146 passing yards with 59.2% completed passes and 14 touchdowns, and he leads the team in rushing yards with 413. Micahi Danzy has a team-high 487 receiving yards and 30 receptions. Defensively, Chris Jones has a team-high 64 total tackles (36 of them solo), while Rylan Kennedy leads the team with 6 sacks.
Florida State Seminoles @ Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Trends: Week 11
Why the Pittsburgh Panthers will win
- Pittsburgh has won seven of its last eight games against non-AP-ranked teams at Acrisure Stadium.
- Florida State has lost four of its last five road games in November.
- Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four November games as an underdog.
- Pittsburgh has covered the spread in eight of its last 10 games as a home favorite.
- Florida State has lost the first half in five of its last six road games in November.
Why the Florida State Seminoles will win
- Pittsburgh has lost each of its last four November games at Acrisure Stadium.
- Pittsburgh has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Florida State has covered the spread in three of its last four road games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Pittsburgh’s last six November games at Acrisure Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of Florida State’s last nine November games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
Pittsburgh Panthers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Cataurus Hicks leads the Atlantic Coast Conference for yards per reception (20.5) this season.
Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Ashton Daniels leads Florida State for touchdowns (13) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Pittsburgh ranks T14th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (74.1).
- Pittsburgh ranks 123rd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (252.6).
- Florida State ranks 122nd among FBS teams for yards allowed per game this season (412.8).
- Florida State is one of 18 FBS teams to score 20+ points in every game this season.
Nick Lagouretos's Pick: Pitt -3.5
