Air Force vs Nevada Prediction 9/26/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Air Force vs Nevada Prediction for this College Football Week 4 matchup on Saturday, September 26th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Nevada Wolf Pack Preview

Nevada has a 1-2 record and are coming off a 20-27 road loss against Middle Tennessee. They will face UTEP and North Dakota State next. Offensively, Nevada averages 28 points per game, ranking 89th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 30.5 points per game, which is 90th. Nevada averages 366 total yards per game (171.7 passing and 194.3 rushing), while allowing 342.3 total yards per game (155.3 rushing and 187 passing).

Carter Jones leads Nevada with 348 passing yards with 60% completed passes and 2 touchdowns. Dominic Kelley leads the team in rushing yards with 281, while Gary Givens III has a team-high 4 receptions for 121 receiving yards. Defensively, EJ Smith has a team-high 34 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Myles Williams leads the team with 1.5 sacks.

Air Force Falcons Preview

Air Force has a 1-1 record and are coming off a 32-38 home loss against North Dakota State. They will face Navy and Northern Illinois next. Offensively, Air Force averages 33 points per game, ranking 59th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 19 points per game, which is 35th. Air Force averages 418 total yards per game (99 passing and 319 rushing), while allowing 240.5 total yards per game (100 rushing and 140.5 passing).

Liam Szarka leads Air Force with 122 passing yards with 53.3% completed passes, also adding a team-high 139 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Matt Long has a team-high 3 receptions for 73 receiving yards. Defensively, Blake Fletcher has a team-high 21 total tackles (10 of them solo), while Blake Fletcher leads the team with one sack.

Air Force Falcons @ Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Nevada Wolf Pack will win

• Air Force has lost four of its last five September games as a favorite.
• Air Force has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games in September.
• Air Force has lost the first half in four of its last five games in September.

Why the Air Force Falcons will win

• Nevada has lost each of its last 11 September games as an underdog.
• Air Force has won five of its last six games against Nevada.
• Nevada has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine home games against conference opponents.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of Air Force’s last five games.
• The road team has won the first quarter in four of Air Force’s last five games.
• Air Force has won the first half in each of its last seven games against teams from Nevada.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Nevada’s last eight September games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Air Force’s last four games as a road favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Nevada Wolf Pack Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Ky Woods ranks 9th amongst FBS players for kick return yards (162) this season.

Air Force Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 4, Will Duncan ranks 1st amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (56.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Nevada ranks T131st among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (3.3).
• Nevada ranks T130th among FBS teams for sacks this season (1.0).
• Air Force ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
• Air Force ranks 2nd among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (26).

Air Force vs Nevada Prediction

In this Air Force vs Nevada Prediction, Air Force is coming as -5.5 road favorites. Both teams are coming off defeats in the previous week but I like Air Force to bounce back today, as they have a far more stable offense, having scored 32 and 34 points in their two games, while Nevada has score 20 and 7. Air Force has also been dominating this matchup, as they are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against Nevada and 5-3 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Take Air Force to win and cover the -5.5 spread on the road. 

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Air Force -5.5