UT Rio Grande Valley vs Missouri State Prediction 11/22/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros and the Missouri State Bears meet Saturday in college basketball action from JQH Arena. Here’s a Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs Missouri State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs Missouri State pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros Betting Preview

The Vaqueros have notched four games for their record so far, maintaining a .500 run in that time. The opener was a 96-81 loss to Baylor on November 3. Leading team scorer Marvin McGhee put up 16 points and nine boards in the defeat. As for game two, UT Rio Grande Valley got a 95-72 victory over Southern Utah. The Vaqueros scored 55 second-half points on the way to the win, and got a double-double from McGhee on 30 points and 10 boards. In game three Texas-Rio Grande Valley fell back into the loss column 85-65 in a road matchup versus Boise State on November 11. The Vaqueros’ only double-digit scorer was Koree Cotton with 12 points and three boards in the losing effort.

Back on Monday in their most recent outing versus Southwestern Adventist, UTRGV managed another win, this time 110-53 in blowout fashion. Koree Cotton was tops this time with 18 points, three boards and two assists, while Dane Christensen had a double-double on 17 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes of work during the win.

Missouri State Bears Betting Preview

Over on the Missouri State side, they opened the season versus Missouri Southern State. After some early trouble, that one ended up a win 88-70. Michael Osei-Bonsu put up 22 points with 14 rebounds for a double-double, and Keith Palek had 21 points with six boards and four assists. In their second outing versus Northwestern Oklahoma State, the Bears put up 51 second-half points in a 106-57 win. Keith Palek had 20 points with eight assists and seven boards, while Darrion Sutton doubled up on 18 points and 11 rebounds.

In game three the Bears took a loss, this one 86-85 against Arkansas State. Missouri State was outscored 53-39 in the second half. Michael Osei-Bonsu led the team in the losing effort with a double-double on 21 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Zaxton King had 18 points with five rebounds.

Last weekend versus Texas-Arlington, the Bears were flat in the first half on a 34-25 deficit. Missouri State didn’t get any closer on a 33-24 run from there and lost handily 67-49. The only player on the team to reach double-digits was Michael Osei-Bonsu with 22 points and five boards. Keith Palek chipped in a team-high 11 rebounds with four points and three assists.

Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros @ Missouri State Bears Betting Trends: November 22, 2025

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• Missouri State has won each of its last six day games against non-Conference opponents at Great Southern Bank Arena.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has lost seven of its last eight road games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has lost the first half in 10 of its last 11 road games against non-AP-ranked opponents.

Why the Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros will win

• Missouri State has lost eight of its last nine day games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has won four of its last five games against the Conference USA.
• Texas–Rio Grande Valley has won the first half in three of its last four day games.

Texas-Rio Grande Valley vs Missouri State Prediction

I’ll lean toward Missouri State. That said, there’s not a lot to get excited about here if you’re not a fan of either team. The Bears looked pretty bad versus Texas-Arlington in their last matchup, shooting just 32 percent from the field and a miserable 1-of-14 (7.1 percent) from 3-point range. The 39-27 rebounding deficit and 16 turnovers all but sealed the 18-point loss. The good news for Missouri State is that they had scored 85 or more points in the other three games prior to that defeat—and the lone loss in that time was by just one point. I see the Bears getting their proverbial mojo back in this one on the way to a smooth cover.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Missouri State Bears TBA