Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction 12/16/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and the Toledo Rockets will meet on Tuesday evening in a non‑conference matchup at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center in East Lansing, Michigan.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans enter Tuesday night’s matchup with the Toledo Rockets with an 8–0 win‑loss record, including a perfect 5–0 record at home. The Spartans have compiled wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Detroit Mercy and the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Spartans single loss was to the Duke Blue Devils. In Michigan State’s 74–58 victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels last month, Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. posted 19 points on 8 of 10 shooting from the field.

The Michigan State Spartans average 76.5 points on 45.5 percent shooting from the field and 35.7 percent shooting from three‑point range per game. Defensively, the Spartans allowing opponents 62.1 points (10th in nation) on 38.6 percent shooting from the field (17th in country) per game.

Sophomore guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the Spartans backcourt, averaging 11.2 points, 3.2 rebounds, 9.7 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Senior forward Jaxon Kohler adds 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Junior forward Coen Carr contributes 10.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest.

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

The Toledo Rockets enter Tuesday’s contest with a 5–5 record, including a 2–2 mark away from home. The Rockets have compiled wins over Wright State, Detroit Mercy and the Youngstown State Penguins, while dropping games to South Alabama, Marshall and the Robert Morris Colonials. More recently, in the Toledo Rockets 102–58 win over Central State earlier this month, center Austin Parks amassed 27 points (10 of 11 shooting from the field), 10 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 blocks illustrating his ability to play well in the paint.

The Toledo Rockets average 80.4 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting from the field and 34.8 percent shooting from three‑point range, while allowing opponents 79.8 points per game which ranks an abysmal 273rd in the country.

Junior guard Sonny Wilson leads the Toledo Rockets backcourt averaging 16.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Freshman guard Leroy Blyden Jr. averages 14 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.5 steals a contest. Senior forward Sean Craig provides the Rockets with an interior presence averaging 13.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2 assists per game.   

Why the Michigan State Spartans Will Win

•            Home court advantage. Breslin Center is one of the toughest venues in college basketball. The Spartans are 5-0 at home this season.

•            Balanced roster. Fears Jr. distributes, Kohler scores inside, Carr adds athleticism.

•            Elite Defense. The Michigan State Spartans are allowing opponents 62.1 points per game which ranks 10th in the country.

Why the Toledo Rockets Will Win

•            Quality guard play. Junior guard Sonny Wilson leads the Toledo Rockets backcourt averaging 16.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game.

•            Offensive pace. Through ten games played this season, the Rockets average 80.4 points per game.

•            Upset motivation. The Rockets are looking to knock off a nationally ranked opponent.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Toledo Rockets Prediction

Michigan State’s defensive identity should be the deciding factor in this matchup. The Spartans have consistently held opponents under 65 points, and their ability to contest perimeter shots will be critical against a Toledo team that thrives on pace and outside scoring. Expect Jeremy Fears Jr. to set the tone with ball pressure, while Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper control the glass to limit second‑chance looks.

Look for Michigan State to build separation in the second half, using defensive stops to fuel transition buckets and extend the margin. With that said, I am backing the Michigan State Spartans to cover the 23.5 points in this game.

Hans Geevers's Pick: Michigan State -23.5