New Mexico vs Fresno State Prediction 2/21/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

In this article, we will formulate a New Mexico vs Fresno State Prediction for this college basketball game on Saturday, February 21st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this college basketball matchup.

Fresno State Bulldogs Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs have a 12-14 overall record and a 6-9 record in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 92-82 road loss against Wyoming and their previous three games were a 93-63 home win against Air Force, a 91-78 road loss against Utah State and a 69-59 road loss against Nevada.

Offensively, Fresno State averages 73.7 points per game, while allowing 72.6 points per game defensively. The Bulldogs shoot with 44% from the field and grab 35 rebounds per game, while dishing out 13.2 assists per game. They average 2 blocks per game and 7.2 steals per game defensively.

Jake Heidbreder leads Fresno State in scoring, with an average of 17.5 points per game, while shooting with 41.9% from the field and 89.8% from the free throw line. Wilson Jacques is the team’s leading rebounder with 8.5 per game. Zaon Collins leads the team in assists with 4.7 per game.

New Mexico Lobos Preview

The New Mexico Lobos have a 20-6 overall record and an 11-4 record in the Mountain West. They are coming off a 70-64 road win against Grand Canyon and their previous three games were a 91-90 home loss against Boise State, an 86-66 home loss against Utah State and a 90-80 road win against San Jose State.

Offensively, New Mexico averages 80.8 points per game, while allowing 69.2 points per game defensively. The Lobos shoot with 46% from the field and grab 36.2 rebounds per game, while dishing out 14.8 assists per game. They average 2.9 blocks per game and 7.8 steals per game defensively.

Jake Hall leads New Mexico in scoring, with an average of 15.8 points per game, while shooting with 48.4% from the field and 76.2% from the free throw line. Tomislav Buljan is the team’s leading rebounder with 9.9 per game. Deyton Albury leads the team in assists with 3.2 per game.

New Mexico Lobos @ Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Trends: February 21, 2026

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• New Mexico has lost eight of its last nine games at Save Mart Center.
• The home team has won each of Fresno State’s last five games.
• The home team has won the first half in six of the last seven games between New Mexico and Fresno State.

Why the New Mexico Lobos will win

• New Mexico has won 13 of its last 14 day games.
• Fresno State has lost 14 of its last 17 day games against Conference opponents.
• New Mexico has won the first half in each of its last five games against Fresno State.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Fresno State’s last 10 day games have produced a total of 156 or fewer points.
• Twelve of New Mexico’s last 15 road games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Fresno State ranks 18th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (29.7%).
• New Mexico ranks 12th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point percentage this season (29.2%).
• New Mexico ranks 26th among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (+12.3).

New Mexico vs Fresno State Prediction

In this New Mexico vs Fresno State Prediction, New Mexico is coming as -8.5 road favorites. New Mexico has been the better team this season and are 6-2 in their last 8 games and 6-3 ATS on the road. On the flip side, Fresno is 1-3 in its last 4 games but has been excellent against the spread with an 8-2 ATS record in its last 10, so I see no value on either side. Both teams are 14-6 to the over in their last 20 games combined, and their previous meeting this season also went over the total with 157 total points. Take the over 156 points in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 156