Missouri State vs Valparaiso Prediction 2/19/25 College Basketball Picks

The Missouri State Bears and the Valparaiso Beacons meet Wednesday in college basketball action from the Athletics-Recreation Center. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Missouri State vs. Valparaiso prediction.

Missouri State Recap

The Missouri State Bears come into this game looking to bounce back from a 63-58 loss at the hands of UIC in their last game to fall to 9-18 on the year. After this game, Missouri State will head home for a matchup with Illinois State.

Bears Lose 8th In Their Last 10

Dez White leads the Bears in scoring and assists with 14.4 PPG and 2.8 APG along with 2.9 RPG while Vincent Brady II has added 13.2 PPG with 4 RPG and 2.6 APG as well on the year. Michael Osei-Bonsu has 11.4 PPG with 7.3 RPG to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Missouri State up to this point in the year as the Bears’ leading rebounder. Zaxton King has added 9.5 PPG with 2.7 RPG while Jalen Hampton’s chipped in 7.7 PPG with 6.2 RPG as well on the year. As a team, Missouri State is averaging 69 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the field, 36% from three-point range, and 64.7% from the foul line so far this season.

Why the Missouri State Bears will win

• Valparaiso has lost 10 of its last 11 games.
• Missouri State has won nine of its last 10 games against Valparaiso.

Valparaiso Recap

The Valparaiso Beacons come into this game looking to bounce back from their 79-69 loss at the hands of Evansville last time out to fall to 11-16 on the year. After this game, Valparaiso will head on the road to take on Southern Illinois.

Beacons Lose 9th In Their Last 10

Cooper Schwieger leads the Beacons in scoring and rebounding with 14.8 PPG and 7.5 RPG while Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro has 10.9 PPG with 1.6 APG. Tyler Schmidt has 11 PPG and 3.1 RPG and All Wright has 13.2 PPG and 2.4 APG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Valparaiso so far this season. Darius DeAveiro has a team-high 2.8 APG to lead the Beacons in assists while Devon Ellis has 5.6 PPG with 2.7 RPG and Kaspar Sepp also has 6.2 RPG as well this season. As a team, Valparaiso is averaging 76.1 PPG on 43.2% shooting from the field, 33.2% from three, and 79.2% from the foul line this season.

Why the Valparaiso Beacons will win

• Missouri State has lost each of its last nine road games.
• The home team has won five of Missouri State’s last six games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Valparaiso’s last 18 Wednesday games against the Missouri Valley Conference has produced a total of 142+ points.
• Six of Missouri State’s last seven games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 139 or fewer points.

Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Prediction

I’m on Missouri State and the points in this game. I get the case to be made for Valparaiso being favored at home, but I looked at this game and the first thought in my mind was that I wanted to be on the side catching points because I truthfully don’t feel like laying points with either side here. The Beacons may be the better team by a hair, but that’s really not enough to move the needle for me if we’re being honest so I’ll take my chances with Missouri State and the points in this game.