Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction 2/26/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Michigan State Spartans and the Purdue Boilermakers will meet on Thursday night in a Big Ten Conference matchup at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview

The Michigan State Spartans enter Thursday evening’s contest with a 22–5 win‑loss record, including a 12–4 record in conference play and a 4-3 mark on the road. The Spartans have compiled wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Detroit Mercy and the Iowa Hawkeyes, while dropping recent games to Minnesota and the Michigan Wolverines.

In Michigan State’s dominant 74–58 victory over the North Carolina Tar Heels earlier this season, Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. amassed 19 points on 8 of 10 shooting from the field illustrating his ability to play at a high level.

The Michigan State Spartans average 78.4 points on 46.6 percent shooting from the field and 35.2 percent shooting from three‑point range per game. Defensively, the Spartans are allowing opponents just 66.1 points per contest which ranks 17th in the nation.

Sophomore guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the Spartans backcourt averaging 15.1 points, 2.5 rebounds, 9.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Senior forward Jaxon Kohler adds 12.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Junior forward Coen Carr contributes 11.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest.

Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview

The Purdue Boilermakers enter Tuesday’s contest with a 22–5 win‑loss record, including a 12–4 mark in conference play and a rather impressive 12-3 record at home. The Boilermakers have amassed wins over Oregon, Maryland, USC and the Iowa Hawkeyes, while losing recent games to Indiana, Illinois and the UCLA Bruins.

Earlier this month, in the Purdue Boilermakers 68–64 win over Oregon, Purdue guard Braden Smith accumulated 13 points (5 of 12 shooting from the field), 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal.

The Purdue Boilermakers average 82.9 points (38th in the nation) on 50.2 percent shooting from the field (13th in country) and 38 percent shooting from three-point range per game. Shifting our focus to the defensive side of the basketball, the Boilermakers are allowing 69.3 points per contest.

Guard Braden Smith leads the Purdue Boilermakers averaging 15.2 points, 8.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Senior forward Trey Kaufman‑Renn provides the Boilermakers with a strong presence in the paint averaging 12.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists and 1 steal per contest.

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Ability to win on the road. The Michigan State Spartans have compiled a 4-3 record on the road this season.

• Defensive edge. The Spartans are allowing opponents 66.1 points per contest which ranks 17th in the nation.

• Frontcourt play. Senior forward Jaxon Kohler adds 12.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.    

Why the Purdue Boilermakers will win

• Quality offense. The Purdue Boilermakers average 82.9 points (38th in the nation) on 50.2 percent shooting from the field (13th in country) per game.

• Guard production. Senior guard Braden Smith leads the Purdue backcourt averaging 15.2 points, 8.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game.

• Frontcourt play.  Senior forward Trey Kaufman‑Renn averages 12.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.9 assists per contest.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction

This matchup features the Purdue Boilermakers home court dominance and balanced scoring against Michigan State’s athleticism, defensive consistency, and elite guard play. Purdue’s recent momentum and elite play at home make the Boilermakers a formidable opponent, but Michigan State’s backcourt and overall form give them a clear path to keep this game competitive deep into the second half. In my view, Michigan State’s outstanding defense keeps the Spartans within the number (7.5) in this matchup. With that said, I am backing the Michigan State Spartans plus the 7.5 points in this game.

Hans Geevers's Pick: Michigan State +7.5