Louisville vs SMU Prediction 2/17/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Louisville Cardinals and the SMU Mustangs meet Tuesday in college basketball action from the Moody Coliseum. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs prediction.

Louisville Cardinals Recap

The Louisville Cardinals come into this game looking to add on to their 82-71 win over Baylor last time out to sit at 19-6 this season. After this game, Louisville will head home for a game against Georgia Tech.

Cardinals Win 5 In A Row

Ryan Conwell leads the Cardinals in scoring with 18.7 PPG along with 5 RPG and 2.8 APG while Mikel Brown Jr. has 17.9 PPG with a team-high 5.1 APG to lead the Cardinals in assists and 3.3 RPG. Isaac McKneely’s added 11.1 PPG with 2.8 RPG and Sananda Fru has 10.3 PPG with 6.5 RPG to lead the Cardinals in rebounding. J’Vonne Hadley has 10.8 PPG with 5 RPG to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Louisville so far this season.  Adrian Wooley’s added 8.3 PPG with 3.9 RPG and Khani Rooths has 6.6 PPG with 5.2 RPG this season. As a team, Louisville is averaging 86.9 PPG on 47.3% shooting from the field, 35.7% from three and 77.2% from the foul line this season.

SMU Mustangs Recap

The SMU Mustangs come into this game looking to bounce back from a 79-78 loss at the hands of Syracuse last time out to sit at 17-8 this season. After this game, SMU will take on Boston College at home.

Mustangs Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Boopie Miller leads the Mustangs in scoring and assists with 18.9 PPG and 6.8 APG along with 1.8 SPG and 3.6 RPG while Jaron Pierre Jr. has 17.4 PPG with 4.9 RPG. Corey Washington has 11.3 PPG with 4.9 RPG and B.J. Edwards has 13.2 PPG with 6.1 RPG and 5 APG along with 2.4 SPG as well. Samet Yigitoglu has 10.7 PPG with 8 RPG to lead SMU in rebounding and to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for SMU so far this season. As a team, SMU is averaging 86.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting from the field, 37.8% from three and 76.2% from the foul line this season. 

Louisville Cardinals @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: February 17, 2026

Why the SMU Mustangs will win

• SMU has won 12 of its last 13 night games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).
• SMU has won the first half in each of its last 10 night games at Moody Coliseum (Dallas).

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last 22 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost each of its last eight night games against AP-ranked opponents.
• SMU has lost the first half in each of its last 10 night games against AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Sixteen of Louisville’s last 17 night games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 160 or fewer points.
• Twenty-eight of SMU’s last 32 games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 162 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 358th among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (28.8).
• SMU ranks T10th among Division 1 teams for field goals made per game this season (31.2).
• Louisville ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (11.6).
• Louisville ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (32.6).

Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction

I’m on Louisville here. It’s not always easy laying points on the road with Louisville, but SMU struggles to defend the perimeter and that’s where the Cardinals have done a lot of their damage. SMU shoots well from behind the arc as well, but they barely take any attempts from there so those numbers are a bit inflated. I think this Louisville team wins this one by 7 or 8 points so give me the Cardinals on the road for the cover here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Louisville -3.5