Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction 3/21/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction for this NCAA Tournament 2nd Round matchup on Saturday, March 21st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this college basketball matchup.

Michigan State Spartans Preview

The Michigan State Spartans have a 26-7 overall record and a 15-5 record in the Big Ten. They are coming off a 92-67 win against North Dakota State and their previous three games were an 88-84 loss against UCLA, a 90-80 loss against Michigan and a 91-87 win against Rutgers.

Offensively, Michigan State averages 79.3 points per game, while allowing 68.4 points per game defensively. The Spartans shoot with 47% from the field and grab 39.7 rebounds per game, while dishing out 18.7 assists per game. They average 4.2 blocks per game and 5.1 steals per game defensively.

Jeremy Fears Jr. leads Michigan State in scoring, with an average of 15.4 points per game, while shooting with 44.3% from the field and 89.4% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 9.2 assists. Jaxon Kohler is the team’s leading rebounder with 9 per game.

Louisville Cardinals Preview

The Louisville Cardinals have a 24-10 overall record and an 11-7 record in the ACC. They are coming off an 83-79 win against South Florida and their previous three games were a 78-73 loss against Miami, a 62-58 win against SMU and a 92-89 road win against Miami.

Offensively, Louisville averages 84.7 points per game, while allowing 72.4 points per game defensively. The Cardinals shoot with 47% from the field and grab 38.5 rebounds per game, while dishing out 17.1 assists per game. They average 3.3 blocks per game and 6.8 steals per game defensively.

Ryan Conwell leads Louisville in scoring, with an average of 18.7 points per game, while shooting with 40.6% from the field and 84.1% from the free throw line, adding a team-high 2.6 assists. Sananda Fru is the team’s leading rebounder with 6.1 per game.

Louisville Cardinals @ Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends: March 21, 2026

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won each of its last six NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed.
• Louisville has lost nine of its last 10 day games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• Michigan State has won the first half in each of its last 10 games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last six day games against non-Conference opponents.
• Michigan State has lost each of its last three March games as a top-15 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• Louisville has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team at neutral venues.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Louisville’s last six NCAA Tournament games against Top 8 seeds have produced a total of 146 or fewer points.
• Ten of Michigan State’s last 11 NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed have produced a total of 149 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for opponent rebounds per game this season (28.4).
• Michigan State ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (58.5%).
• Louisville ranks 4th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goals made per game this season (11.9).
• Louisville ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (32.7).

Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction

In this Louisville vs Michigan State Prediction, Michigan State is coming as -4 favorites. Michigan State has an easy one in the opening round, winning by 25 points and have the 26th-best defense in the nation. On the flip side, Louisville had trouble against USF in the first round and is 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 games. Their defense has been struggling lately and are 1-3 in their last four head-to-head meetings against Michigan State. I like Michigan State in this spot, so lay the short number with them in this matchup.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Michigan State -4