Houston vs Duke Prediction 4/5/25 College Basketball Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Houston vs Duke prediction for this College Basketball game on Saturday, April 5, at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. The winner of this game will meet Auburn or Florida in the National Championship Game.

Houston Cougars Betting Preview

The Houston Cougars (34-4, 20-16-2 ATS) are one of the hottest teams in basketball as they lost just one of the previous 30 games and are on a 16-game winning run. The Cougars easily clinched the No. 1 seed for the Big 12 tournament, where they defeated Colorado, BYU, and Arizona to secure the conference title. Houston didn’t have troubles with SIU Edwardsville in the first round of the NCAA tournament but went through nail-biting games against Gonzaga and Purdue to make it to the Elite 8. The Cougars were rock-solid against Tennessee and won 69-50.

Houston averages 74.0 PPG (179th) and allows 58.3 PPG (1st). The Cougars are 124th in rebounds (36.7) and 322nd in assists (12.3). L.J. Cryer leads the team with 15.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG, and 2.0 APG. Emanuel Sharp follows him with 12.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and a team-high 1.4 SPG, while Milos Uzan chips in 11.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and a team-high 4.4 APG.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils (34-3, 25-13 ATS) are still one of the hottest teams in basketball and are currently on a 14-game winning streak. The Blue Devils won the ACC title without much trouble and without Cooper Flagg; only North Carolina was close in the conference semifinals when Duke won 74-71. At the NCAA tournament, Duke destroyed Mount St. Mary’s and Baylor in the first two rounds and then reached a 100-point mark in a 100-93 victory over Arizona. The Blue Devils destroyed Alabama 85-65 in the Elite 8. 

Duke averages 83.7 PPG (10th) and allows 62.6 PPG (7th). The Blue Devils are 48th in rebounds (38.3) and 22nd in assists (17.1). Cooper Flagg leads the team with 18.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, and 1.3 BPG. Kon Knueppel follows him with 14.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, and 1.0 SPG, while Tyrese Proctor chips in 12.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 2.2 APG.

Why Houston will cover

• Houston has won each of its last 17 games.

Total Points Facts

• Thirteen of Duke’s last 14 games have produced a total of 142+ points.
• Each of Houston’s last four NCAA Tournament night games against Top 4 seeds have produced a total of 132 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Duke ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (92.9).
• Duke ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for net rating this season (+33.5).
• Houston ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for opponent steals per game this season (4.7).
• Houston ranks 3rd among Division 1 teams for net rating this season (+25.6).

Houston vs Duke Prediction

These teams have met once before, in last year’s NCAA tournament, when Duke won 54-51. Although I don’t expect to see such a low number of points, I still expect a low-scoring game. I prefer Duke’s style of basketball, but we all know that defenses win championships, and the Cougars’ rock-solid defense got them this far. If someone can stop Cooper Flagg, it’s Houston. I am backing Houston to put up a fight, slow the tempo down, and stay close to the very end. It’s going down to the wire, and don’t be surprised if they go to overtime. I am going with the Cougars to cover.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: Houston +5.5